Royalties & Cardinalate

Lots of Royals chatter in cyberspace today. First and foremost, in my latest ESPN fantasy dispatch, I take a look at the best the Royals have to offer in the primary fantasy categories.

Elsewhere, Rob & Rany have a entry regarding my favorite topic: Pickering vs. Harvey. Speaking of that, Jeff Passan has a fine piece in today's Star on this topic and I urge you to read the article post haste.

There are a couple of troubling quotes from Allard Baird in this story. Let's take number one:

“It's easy to sit and play rotisserie,” Baird said.

There's a bit venom in those words. Sabermetrics is not rotisserie, Allard. Ask the A's. Ask the Red Sox. We all know by now that Baird has become more open to sabermetric precepts over the last few years and has been widely applauded for his transformation from the Pat Gillick mode. However, and this is pure speculation on my part, even though Baird recognizes the value in quatitative analysis, perhaps he lacks the grasp of the underlying concepts of sabermetrics that he needs to apply them. I don't know. It's just one line but it seems awfully dismissive.

Now for the biggie:

“For every two he drives in, he's going to let in one,” Royals general manager Allard Baird said in early February. “Now do you see where I'm coming
from?”

Most of you who have made your way to this site probably know that this statement is patently absurd without me telling you. It's true that Pickering is a lousy fielder and would make a few more errors than Ken Harvey or even Mike Sweeney.

Using my projection model (which I suppose I ought to give a name), I plugged in Ken Harvey as the first baseman for 650 plate appearances (or about 93% of the playing time) with Pickering as the backup. Then I swapped the playing time figures. In this scenario, the Pickering lineup scores 28 more runs than the Harvey lineup, gives up seven more runs for a net of two additional wins.

What would it take for Baird's statement to be literally true? As a fulltime player, Pickering projects to generate 112 runs for the Royals' bottom line. For his defense to cost the team 56 runs, his zone rating would have to be about .610. The worst qualifying zone rating in baseball last season was .808. Harvey, who didn't qualify, posted an .803. Pickering has an .810 career zone rating, albeit based on only 42 opportunities. Mr. Baird needs to watch what comes out of his mouth when a reporter is standing nearby.

I still feel like this position battle is the key story of the spring because it will reveal so much about the mindset of the team's decision makers. Comments like these make me worry.

A BTF discussion on JP's article is right here. Finally, John Sickels looks at the Royals' top 20 prospects in this article.

Ankiel creates buzz kill

With the NCAA Tournament looming and the NBA’s second half in full swing, my sports attention has been pretty spread out. But as the calendar turns to March 1, the Cardinals are slowly creeping to the forefront of my sports-minded consciousness. Unlike some of my luckier colleagues, not being in Jupiter, Florida removes the feeling that the season is actually pending. Perhaps I need to see some spring training highlights. Or quit watching so much basketball. Or quit working so much. The fact that it is snowing as I type this and about 25 degrees right now in St. Louis is a major variable as well. I can't yet sense baseball. But I like snow, so am not complaining.

Not good news on Monday about Ricky Ankiel. Three days after looking sharp in live batting practice, he could not throw strikes in simulated at-bats. He threw 3 strikes out of 26 pitches, with numerous bouncers and sailers. He was all over the place. Scary. Especially considering Albert Pujols was one of the batters.

Said Ankiel: “I feel like I just didn't have a rhythm. My mechanics were out of whack there. You try to stay mechanically sound, and hopefully you catch it pitch to pitch. Unfortunately I wasn't able to.”

First real troublesome news from spring. Otherwise, I am hoping either Jimmy Journell or Bill Pulsipher can become a new feel-good story. Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen were part of Generation K in the Mets’ system in the mid-90s (with Paul Wilson). Speaking of Izzy, I really like him but paying a 32-year-old closer a 3-year deal (between $7 and 9 million per season) for about $25 mill. is pretty steep. But, closers are generally overpaid (right, Brad?) so it’s no surprise. What bothers me is that Izzy has had injuries and a drop in velocity in recent seasons.

But my favorite two stories from February are Mellow Matt Morris’ beard and Bo Hart trying to bat lefthanded to become a switch-hitter. That’s gritty and gutty.