Royalties & Cardinalate

Hottest team in MLB

First, Joe Borowski comes through like a champ, then Zach Day stifles the Reds on Friday. A ‘W’ for STL, a phat ‘L’ for HOU, CIN and CHI. Lovely. The Redbirds’ season has now reached its one-third mark. After 54 games St. Louis is 31-23, which matches its 2003 high-water mark of eight games above .500. I’d take 93 wins (and the NL Central crown) at season’s end. Cheerfulness is flowing as freely as Budweiser here as this team not only extended its win streak to a season-high of five, but the momentum from the 6-1 road trip carried into Friday’s 5-3 Busch victory over the Astros.

Nearing .500 at home: STL is still only 12-14 at home, but that figures to improve quickly. The fans here know what’s happening; there were over 47,000 fans at Busch on Friday. By comparison, the champion Marlins drew 25,000 in their last home Friday night game (vs. the Mets) even though the D-Train was pitching. And it is pretty easy to find games at Florida where they draw under 15,000. Obviously, there are reasons they do not draw well, but it’s still somewhat a worthy point for comparison since they are the champs.

Just wait: The most thrilling aspect of this current run is that Woody Williams, Matt Morris, Jimmy Edmonds and Edgar Renteria are yet to hit a groove. That creates a pretty high ceiling for the remainder of 2004. I would put Izzy in that bunch, but he seems to be on a roll now. Morris and Williams are a combined 8-10 while the rest of the rotation is 15-9.

Stop Paul Wilson: The Expos and Reds (32-22) have a nice pitching matchup on Saturday: Tomo Ohka (3-5, 3.05) vs. Paul Wilson (7-0, 3.34). Wilson, making his 11th start, hasn't allowed more than one earned run in his past three starts and went 4-0 in May with a 2.34 ERA.

Finally: Four-game win streak!

Mark Prior was spectacular today, but Joe Borowski was, yet again, awful. So despite six nearly perfect innings from Mark Robot, the Cubs currently sit just one game above .500 after Borowski’s ninth-inning collapse against the Pirates today. In 21.1 innings, Borowski has allowed 47 base runners and his ERA is a very untidy 8.02.

Go Expos!: This four-game winnning streak is STL's longest in 2004. With the Astros in town for three followed by four at Wrigley, the next seven days could enable the Redbirds to put a bit of a gap between themselves and the Cubs and Astros. But the first-place Reds have Montreal in Cincy for three this weekend, though I like Zach Day’s chances vs. Jose Acevedo on Friday night. The damn Reds are 16-9 at home.

TLR vs. Lloyd Mac: Now that was a blast. As goofy and unnecessary as most brawls or semi-brawls are, I felt Thursday’s nose-to-noser between the managers was great. Each had a valid case, each did nothing distasteful and each feels good about how they reacted upon further reflection. I thought for a split-second McClendon might push La Russa, but there was no elevation to their back-and-forth jawing. Pretty clean bench-clearing incident and nothing ridiculous occurred. Great TiVO slo-mo fodder as well. TLR’s take:

“(McClendon's) right, you shouldn't yell at other teams' players,” La Russa said. “I mean, I don't like to do it, but when it gets to be excessive -- that ball up in the head area -- it's better to yell than for us to come back and throw at somebody's head.”

From Redbird Nation: “The 2004 Cardinals have as good a record through 53 games as any Cardinals team over the past seventeen years.” Wow!

Mizzou's bats in the Pelfrey

After barely squeezing into the NCAA tournament, hopes were still plenty high for Tiger fans after the team's great run to the Big 12 final. The first game for Mizzou is this afternoon in Fayetteville, Ark., against stud sophomore righty Mike Pelfrey and the Wichita State Shockers. So far, the Tigers have managed just two hits through seven innings and trail 2-0. Pelfrey has struck out 10.

I don't follow college baseball that closely, meaning I follow it more than most baseball fans but am well below the Baseball America level. I'm a bit of a baseball draftnik and a happy subscriber to Kevin Goldstein's daily newsletter but chances are, if you ain't a prospect, I ain't heard of ya.

Thanks to the great work of Craig Burley over at Hardball Times, I'm able to listen to this Tigers game with more knowledge and comprehension than I ever would have on my own, thanks to Burley's translated college stats. Thus I am able to tell in this pitching matchup that Pelfrey, at 43.6 Runs Saved Above Average (a measure I'm familiar with as a subscriber to Lee Sinins' newsletter), ranks 27th in the nation among pitchers. (Damn me, Wichita State just scored a third run on a passed ball with two outs. Mizzou's catcher Brad Flanders, it a player with a very good defensive reputation so that's disappointing. The Tigers are in trouble.) Missouri's pitcher, Danny Hill, is 162nd in the country at 24.6 RSAA. Even if they lose, Missouri will have their ace, Garrett Broshuis, going tomorrow (36.3 RSAA, 55th), probably against LeMoyne. You have to like the Tigers' chances to play beyond that elimination game, which would probably be a return match with the Shockers tomorrow night. Wichita State has some injuries to their upper-echelon pitchers so that might be a good thing. The drop-off to Missouri's third pitcher, Mark Alexander (21.9 RSAA, 191st) isn't that steep. Headed to the bottom of the eighth, it's 3-0 Wichita State. Pelfrey has struck out a season-high 12. It's looking bleak.

On the bright side... While I listen to the Tigers, I have the Cubs game on the television in the corner of my study. All season on my injury-laden fantasy team, I've been stashing Mark Prior. It took me about two batters to be grateful that I drafted him and remained patient. The guy is awesome. Through six shutout innings, Prior has allowed just two Pittsburgh hits while striking out eight and walking none. But the Cubs haven't scored and with 85 pitches through six, Prior is probably done. So I'd really, really like to see the Cubs score this inning.

Updates & corrections: Cubs: disappointment. Mizzou: disappointment...Pelfrey is actually lefthanded. And Alexander, who I had penciled in to start Mizzou's third game, is actually their ace reliever. Told you I don't follow college ball that closely.

I'm a bloggin' mo-fo

If I don't find more time to post, I'll have to put a strikethrough on the 'Royalties' portion of our flag up there. Most of our traffic lately has been from Cardinal readers, except those who find their way here from my ESPN column, hoping to find crucial advice missing from my article only to find I've been just as negligent in this space. Ah, well.

First things first, which is, of course, links to things on the Web by and about me.

In this installment of Stat Guy, I explore the arrival of Zack Greinke. The point is simple: while all the signs on Greinke are positive, with young pitchers, you always have to keep the hyperbole in check - not that my media brethren have noticed.

The latest Stat Guy, explores the injury-laden recent history of Royals young pitchers and simply suggests that they can do better. I also hung an economic estimate on the damage because I found it to be an interesting sidebar. However, this section ended up generating the headline for the story. Thus, I think the headline is a little misleading but I've seen worse. This column was inspired by Will Carroll's new book, Saving the Pitcher, for which I will compose a complete review for this space in the near future. Will dropped me a kind note after the piece appeared, as did Rany Jazayerli earlier. It's nice to know the B.P. guys know I exist since I hold them in such high esteem.

The latest Northern League notebook is, well, a collection of notes about early play in the Northern League season. In a Royals-related note, Jermaine Allensworth signed with the Joliet Jackhammers this week. In a tiny bit of serendipity, the inspiration for this article's headline, Brad Ziegler, played his college ball at Southwest Missouri, part of Brian's beat, and once was one of his interview subjects.

The latest dispatch for ESPN's fantasy readership has been posted. Why do I keep doing this even though I'm overwhelmed with work and I don't get paid for it? Try 200,000 hits on that page, man. ESPN is the monolith in contemporary sports media. Even on that distant perimeter where I reside, I get more attention than I can get almost anywhere else online. Almost half the traffic to this blog comes from that column.

I link to 'Thoughts from Diamond Mind' because Tom Tippett is not only a master game-maker, but is one of the finest baseball writers and sabermetricians around. He posted recently regarding the lack of runs scored/runs allowed in the baseball standings found in mainstream publications. If you're a KC Star reader, you already know that we include that info in our standings. Getting this done was the very first task I undertook when I became the senior stat guy at the paper. Anyway, I e-mailed Tom about this and he posted my message right here.

The final note of self-promotion (I know it's shameless, but hey, I want to write about baseball full-time and get paid for it - every little bit helps) is that I made my radio debut today. I was on a segment on 1290 AM in Tucson, Arizona, a Fox Sports Net affiliate. The show is called 'The Big Show with Jim Donovan' but Donovan wasn't in today and I spoke with Rich Herrera. When I knew what time I would be on, I was worried about nerves so I went to the gym and worked up a tremendous sweat to keep my mind occupied. I went on the minute I returned home. If I could hear myself, I might feel different, but it really seemed to me to go very well. Mostly we commiserated about the suckiness of the Royals and then talked through the Beltran Watch.

So what do you say, Brian? Lakers in five? I'll say six. I just don't think the Pistons can score enough. I will be interested to see a multi-game battle between Big Ben and Shaq.

Coming soon, though Brian doesn't know it yet, this blog will incorporate a Mizzou presence in the flag and we'll be blogging the Tigers. I hope to do this soon as our boys have made the NCAA baseball tournament. They open tomorrow against Wichita State, whom I hate because they're in Kansas.

More Bud's folly: As I typed this entry, I had the Indians-Angels game on the tube and Raul Mondesi hit his first home run for the Halos - and I wanted to be sick. It's unconscionable that Mondesi could do what he did to the Pirates and come back and sign with a team this season. The Pirates should have been able to suspend him - without pay - and not allow him to sign with another organization. And now, all of a sudden, after a suitable volume of discontent was heard, Selig has decided to launch an investigation in the whole affair. It's a little late now, Buddy boy. My feelings about Selig sort of reflect what I feel about another high-ranking official in another line of work, as crooked and seedy as I think he is on the surface, I shudder to think about what may lie beneath, out of sight of the general public. I'm not sure I want to know. All I do know is that baseball will be far better off when they get a real commissioner.

Molina time: Yadier joins Cards

With Mike Matheny on the 15-day DL (strained right side muscle), the Redbirds have decided to turn to 21-year-old Yadier Molina. Not only is the dude already in Pittsburgh, he is catching Woodster tonight. Molina was a fourth round Cardinals pick in the June 2000 draft. So, what else do we know about this guy? Well, he has a (supposed) great arm, has impressive baseball lineage and is a solid singles hitter that lacks power. Molina’s two brothers, Bengie and Jose, are catchers for the Angels.

In 36 games with Memphis, Yady batted .310 with one homer and 14 RBI. He threw out 61 percent of base stealers. In 2002, Molina had a .715 OPS at Double-AA and he had an OPS of .659 (pretty average) at Memphis in 2003. He played in 216 games in those two seasons, but hit just nine homers. His OBP has hovered right around .330.

Matheny is a great defensive catcher, but arguably a bit overrated in that regard – at least in terms of how much he helps the team win. Cody McKay currently is not doing much more than taking up a roster spot as an emergency player. Matheny is off to a .252/.297/.381 start (though significantly better than his career averages), which is not terrible but I am eager to see if Molina can become a spot starter the rest of 2004. If he hits well, he will receive playing time - and strengthen the lower part of the order. Plus, Matheny (Mr. Double Play) would not be so banged up in September. That would make McKay expendable and also would erase the nagging feeling that TLR is wasting a spot. At least he is not carrying three catchers like he has done in the past.

Walt Jocketty considers Molina the team’s future C, so this could be the beginning of a new era of sorts. Matheny's current EQA is .235 while Molina's is .284 (his MLB Equivalent EQA is .241.) McKay? He is at a laughable .023.

Womack’s surge: After going 4-for-5 on Wednesday, Mack is seven for his past 15 and is up to a .331 OBP. I was hoping for .340 at season’s beginning, but if he can at least stay at .335 or better, I would be thrilled. It would be as exhilarating as Edgar Renteria going on a 10-game tear to remind us just how good he really is (or can be).

There is no place like PNC Park

This is fun. I cannot wait for tonight’s game. With the Redbirds currently at their 2004 peak and playing at a park where they play their best baseball, optimism is flowing freely in St. Louis. After winning five out of six, the Cards are finally five games over .500 (28-23) thanks to their MLB-best 17-9 road record. With Chris Carpenter, the staff ace right now, tossing tonight I’m feeling another W. CC is 4-0 in his past five starts and leads the starters in wins and ERA. Over his past seven starts, he is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA.

As I post this, Florida’s Dontrelle Willis has no-hit the Reds through six, so this could be a sweet evening. Plus, either the Cubs or Astros will lose this afternoon. Positive vibrations.

PNC = Rs and Ws: The Cardinals have had 10 or more hits in their past 18 games in Pittsburgh and have homered 33 times. They have averaged 7.1 runs a game in their 26 games at PNC and are 20-6 all-time there.

Womack and selectivity: It has seemed that Tony Womack has been successful at working counts, which I have considered an added value to his essentially average (for him) season. He is seeing 3.98 pitches per plate appearance, up from his 2003 average of 3.65. He is on the cusp of the NL’s top-20, so that is a good sign.

Phat: Man, that was fast. Albert Pujols’ jump from .279 to .321 was not unexpected, but definitely occurred in a relative flash. He is 13 for his past 18 overall. At PNC Park, Pujols is 47-for-114 in is career with 12 HRs and 37 RBI in just 26 games. He's also reached base 21 times in his last six games. Wow.

Reggie, Reggie: Our RF is still slumping badly. Reggie Sanders had a DNP on Tuesday and hit .182 with one HR and 4 RBI in May. That followed his fine April line of .322 with eight homers and 22 RBI.

Durable Jedmonds: I had not realized this until today, but Jimmy Edmonds (Jedmonds, as defined by Redbird Nation) has not missed a game. However, TLR said he will sit on Thursday against Pirates lefty Oliver Perez, who has the makings of being a fine MLB starter.

Road remains kind for Redbirds

Since I was returning to St. Louis from my weekend camping adventure today, I was finally able to listen to Wayne Hagin and Mike Shannon for the majority of a game. Typically, I record the games with TiVo and watch them when I get home from work. Initially, I was surprised when KMOX chose Hagin as Shannon’s new partner, but it seems to have been a great decision. Joel Meyers was solid, but Hagan is a better long-term fit. He has a great sense of when to spout stats, when to be quiet and when to become genuinely thrilled over a play. He also baits Shannon into a good story at just the right moments. Hagan also is very fair in his analysis of both teams and though not extremely charismatic, he coalesces well with Shannon, who obviously can provide the more outgoing attributes that Hagan may lack. I like that Hagin shows respect for the game and does not use any contrived signature-type phrases (like Ken Harrelson).

After studying the three latest box scores, a few things jumped out at me:

Get Rid of Eldred: Cal Eldred should not be on this team. He has been awful many more times than he has been palatable and he has no numbers to justify 17 games pitched. That is one out of every three games. He has an ERA of 7.71 and has allowed 33 base runners in 16 innings.

King in the Pen: I am very thankful to have Ray King on this team. He is fearless, likeable and is yet to allow a home run. In his 19 innings, only 21 runners have reached. With Steve Kline having a great season, it definitely feels nice to have two money lefties in the bullpen.

Womack the Same Ol' Player: Not to anyone’s surprise, but Tony Womack’s numbers have gravitated toward his career numbers. A lifetime .270/.315/.359 hitter, he is at .275/.321/.376 for 2004.

I was almost startled to read on getupbaby.net that Cody McKay had four hits on Saturday. I read the Cards news before the box scores and since he had three hits on the season prior to Saturday, this was out of nowhere.

Ex-Royals slugger Mark Quinn resigned with Memphis and went 0-3 with two Ks in his debut. Memphis played the Albuquerque Isotopes. Did they steal that name from The Simpsons? Dancing Homer. Memphis released OF Brian L. Hunter, who had no extra-base hits in 54 at-bats. What a bum.

Tigers first baseman Carlos Pena has a brother named Omar who is playing at Class A Peoria. Pena, a second baseman/shortstop, is hitting .342/.368/.452. He was the Cardinals' 16th-round draft pick in 2003.