Royalties & Cardinalate

Perfect time for Birds to soar

I do not have a very good feeling about this weekend’s games. The Astros are still grumpy over being manhandled by the Reds last weekend and are also eager to get back at the Birds after being swept in Houston in late April. I detailed this critical current stretch earlier this week and this weekend might represent a severe momentum shift. Consider that the Cardinals are in a stretch in which they’ll play 20 of 25 games on the road, not to mention the NL Central opponents they are facing. Not only do the Redbirds need to ascend above the (24-21) pesky Brewers, they need to erase the 1.5-game deficit they have with the Cubs while Chicago is injury-ridden. Chicago begins this weekend with a twinbill against the revitalized Pirates and are without several notable players. If Pesky Pitt takes 3-of-4 from the Cubs and the Cards take 2-of-3 in Houston, STL would be poised to take over first. First! Because if STL plays well at Pittsburgh next week, they would be gaining on whomever is losing the simultaneous Cubs-Astros series. Sounds good. I’ll be camping all weekend, so these will be my first back-to-back missed Redbirds games of 2004. Can KMOX reach this place?

Clemens scorching at home: So, the next few days could be a huge thrill, or completely disheartening. Or, as is usually the case, somewhere in the middle. But it should be quite a ride beginning with Friday’s dueling aces: (7-0) Roger Clemens and (5-1) Chris Carpenter. It is stunning that Clemens has 70 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He is also 5-0 at home with a 1.13 ERA and he is allowing lefthanders a .178 average. Damn.

Thanks for the IWs:I found the Pirates’ strategy to walk Albert Pujols three times to face Scott Rolen puzzling. Rolen not only leads MLB in RBI, but he is hitting the ball hard nearly every at-bat while Pujols has not been nearly as consistent. Albert is batting .213 with runners in scoring position, .158 with runners in scoring position and two outs, and .174 in close or late situations. Rolen’s numbers are great across the board, including averages of .442 with RISP and .393 with RISP and two out.

Jedmonds: A trip to the Juicebox might be just what wakes up Jimmy Edmonds on the road. He is hitting .208 on the road, but went 22-for-60 at Minute Maid in 2002/2003 – though he went a dismal 1-for-14 at the Maid in April. But lefties cannot hit Clemens, so that is ominous. Edmonds is so enigmatic that he is as likely to hit two HRs as he is to fan four times on any given day, so who knows.

Lanky vs. Mabry: Ray Lankford is not only struggling to get hits, but is struggling to hit line drives. He is 1-for-9 in his past four games and is slugging .317 in May after slugging .580 in April in even more at-bats. I’m not sure if it has been said by the club, but John Mabry is likely to get Lanky’s playing time if he keeps hitting well. No surprise there, but I worry about Ray’s confidence after such a nice, feel-good start.

Baseball in the 1980s Many baseball fans moan about the rampant state of free agency and it is hard to disagree. Last night I was able to watch ‘The Best of This Week in Baseball’ and seeing all of the greats stars from the 80s made me realize how a team was identifiable by its top couple of players. Does not happen as much anymore. Do the Brewers, Tigers, Pirates or Indians have a player that embodies the team? Not really. There is no Robin Yount, Cecil Fielder, Dave Parker or Andre Thornton on these teams. So this program made me a bit sad, though the nostalgia (and beer) certainly gave me a warm, fuzzy feeling. Seeing highlights of Fred Lynn’s defensive heroics, Amos Otis strutting in the outfield and players like Brian Downing and Chet Lemon was very enjoyable and refreshing. Of course little can top Ozzie’s early San Diego highlights, or the great plays made by Duane Kuiper and Toby Harrah to seal Len Barker’s perfect game in 1981. I was reminded of Juan Nieves’ no-hitter (first in Brew Crew history) and why Statis-Pro baseball gave Jesse Barfield a T5 rating. I also saw what I think is the greatest play ever made: a home run taken away by a RF named (Chris?) James from San Diego.

I also saw Ken and Junior Griffey playing in the OF at the same time and, well, that is neat. Adding in all of the Bo highlights, seeing Keith Hernandez grab a bunt off one bounce on the third base side in front of the plate to start a double play and Dave Bergman’s hidden ball tricks, it was the best baseball show I’ve seen in some time. Hernandez really did do that as he was on top of a bunter like no other 1B in modern history.

Another highlight was Fred Lynn’s All-Star game grand slam, which, as I recall, was the first time Brad was actually watching a game when a salami occurred. Prior to that he had an odd streak of always missing a slam.

Still waiitng for that inevitable Royals winnning streak . . . . .

On deck: 17 NL Central games

It will be Friday, June 11 before the Cardinals face another team other than the Pirates, Astros and Cubs. That is a span of 17 games and, though it likely will not seal the Redbirds’ 2004 fate, this stretch does have potential to be significant. Of the 17 games, 11 are on the road and eight are day games. Considering that the Cards are 13-8 on the road and 10-13 at Busch, all of these road games are not a concern.

For a dose of quick-hit enlightenment, I like to look at Cards vs. opponent OPS splits to get a decent feel for how the offense/pitching fares in basic situations. There are, of course, more in-depth (and superior) methods to really dig deep into these things, but after 43 games, this is an early, very simple way to obtain a feel for team trends. Overall, STL has a .772 OPS vs. .739 for opponents. On the road, STL is .771, but opponents fall to .690 (down from .781 at Busch). In day games, it is .760 vs. .762.

So, the offense has been, overall, pretty even across the board. The pitching has clearly been much more effective on the road. The team ERA falls from 4.54 at Busch to 3.50 on the road, so given the team record splits and OPS splits, it is clear the road has been kind this far. Hopefully this will continue and the home pitching will improve. It would seem that the home pitching is currently the single most important performance flaw with this team. With a season-long winning streak of three games, it is no surprise why this team is in the middle of the NL Central.

Picture this: STL-Tex? Following this NL Central span, it will be time for interleague play, meaning the Redbirds will play the Rangers and A’s. Cards-Rangers? Cannot picture that series in my head.

Time for Mabry: Roger Cedeno has one total base in 12 games this season, so he appears to be the most replaceable hitter on the current roster. I’m ready to see John Mabry get some MLB at-bats. The left-handed hitting Mabry, 33, has 46 hits, 12 homers, 89 total bases and 35 RBI in 39 games at AAA Memphis. His line is .338/.406/.654. He seems a nice fit with his power, ability to play the OF and he is in a groove playing everyday. Cedeno has done nothing but stay injured. In his career, Cedeno is .274/.342/.373.

DSOK standings

Just for the heck of it, here are the current standings of our fantasy baseball league:

TEAM				TOTAL

Lab Rats			60

St. Louis Sounds		57

Tropic of Capricorn		49.5

Water Coolers			48.5

Rage Against the Sausage	48

Rushden & Diamonds		44.5

The Passion of the Ditka	41.5

Sirius Dogstars		38.5

Giant Sox			34

Cellah Dwellah			18.5

Brian is, of course, the St. Louis Sounds while my squad is the Tropic of Capricorn, named after my favorite book written by my favorite writer (Henry V. Miller). The Sounds have been pretty tough since the season's inception but it can't last. Like in anything else, being my little brother, Brian can't beat me.

What's that buzz?

The buzz surrounding Zack Greinke is a little easier to fathom now that he has flashed his wares in the Major Leagues.

First, a rant about Fred White. Thankfully, we were given a one-game respite from Fred's habit of inviting boring guests into the booth for boring recollections for at least one game - that game in Texas where he was talking to the Royals former PR guy made we want choke somebody. Who the hell cares about the sports scene in the MetroPlex or whatever they call that mass tangle of highways and cities around Dallas, an area I despise? When Fred first returned from his exile to fill in for Denny Matthews on occasion, I thought it was great. Like all Royals fans my age, the voices of Denny & Fred went hand-in-hand with Royals baseball during my formative years and beyond. But Fred, who is one heck of a nice guy, has gotten to be a pretty poor baseball announcer. He still does pretty well with college basketball. But he loses focus or his attention span has eroded or something. He can't go two pitches without telling some story. When I listen to baseball on the radio, I want play-by-play and analysis, not the wistful ramblings of an old man. Ryan Lefevre, on the other hand, is a very good broadcaster, in my opinion. As for Denny Matthews, who has sort of a shaky standing in the forum of public opinion around here, remains, as he always has been, a top-notch radio announcer. End rant.

Since the game wasn't televised, we had to rely on the descriptive abilities of Lefevre and cuddly old Fred to get a guage on Greinke. And what I heard was exciting. First of all, Greinke had no problem or fear throwing the ball into the strike zone. That is always step one for a young pitcher. His ability to mix and locate a variety of pitches at all sorts of different speeds was on display. Lefevre was great in noting the radar gun reading throughout Greinke's appearance - the fastball ran from 88-94 and the curveball ranging from 58 (!) to the upper 70's. Later on, I saw highlights of Greinke on SportsCenter and those plays he made on the mound were excellent - you can tell by the way he moves and the quickness in how he reacts that he already is one of the best fielding pitchers in baseball. He made his best pitches with runners on base - all through his minor-league career, he has shown an ability to 'rise to the occasion', a trait evident in the very best athletes. He only struck out one batter, the downside of his appearance. The home run to Durazo didn't bother me because it came on a hanging curveball. What would have troubled me is if he was pounded on pitches that he thought were good.

Greinke is a very exciting pitcher and I can't wait to see him in person. He's just one of those guys who emanate a natural charisma. He's a natural-born star, albeit a very young-looking star. If you have a copy of this morning's Kansas City Star (and, if you don't, shame on you), check out that photo of Zack on page 5. Are you telling me that doesn't look like a bat boy that John Cumberland is walking with? By the way, I hope you appreciate those averages in the Royals' graphic at the top of that page. They're a pain in the ass to put together but for our loyal readers, I'm always willing to go the extra mile. They're a pain because it's hard to find opponents statistics so I keep them in a spreadsheet. But I do it because I want to provide every bit of context for our statistics that I can. Otherwise, it's just filler and I hate filler. Also, I have to update the stats by hand after the Royals game is finished since you can't get updated numbers anywhere that fast.

Jeremy the Wicked returns: I was quite frusturated and more than a little pouty when the Royals lost that game yesterday. It's like a conspiracy - against me. I mean, can't Affeldt make one bad pitch and not have it result in a two-run, game-tying home run? Not this year. In the late innings, teams just don't miss any opportunities to rub it in the Royals' faces. Affeldt didn't miss by much but he did miss - the ball was right out over the plate.

However, I was thrilled with the way Affeldt threw the ball. He hit 98 MPH on the gun and was regularly at 95-96. Where did this velocity come from? Why wasn't he able to reach back and get it as a starting pitcher? I realize that starting pitchers can't throw balls-to-the-wall all through their appearances but Affeldt was topping out at 92-93. What magical transformation occurs when you tell the guy he is a reliever and not a starter? It's stupifying.

Kent Hrbek musings

I am in the process of re-organizing the utility room in my home and just a few minutes ago, as I was moving a half-open box, a few baseball cards fell out. First card I saw was a 1984 Kent Hrbek. Wierd thing is that the dude turned 44 yesterday. Even more odd, I happened to read ESPN's Tim Kirkjian's latest column about baseball odd balls just a few hours ago and there was an antecdote involving Hrbek and Andy Van Slyke that, though kind of funny, was not something I found overly enlightening. For those who don't know, Van Slyke and Al Hrabowky host a baseball radio show each Friday afternoon in STL.