Royalties & Cardinalate

Zack!

Damn those folks at Fox Sports. Them and their "exclusive broadcast rights". Here I sit, enjoying another Cubs rout, which should be finished off in plenty of time for the debut of Zack Greinke in just over an hour. Despite the $230 or so I shelled out for MLB Extra Innings as well as mlb.tv, I have will not be able to see the game. Bastards.

As I wrote in my fantasy correspondence (post v.0414), I think it would be wise to temper our expections of Greinke. There will be an adjustment period. He may be lights out for a start or two, a la Rick Harden, until a book is established on him. Then he will probably takes some lumps. Overall, I think he'll be right around the league ERA this season. It's next season where I think the Royals will reap the benefits of bringing Greinke up now. And because of that I think the Royals are doing the right thing in calling him up, even if this season is lost.

Is this season really lost? Well, I'm on record as saying so, as I wrote in the latest Stat Guy (right here). But even though I know this intellectually, I still harbor hope for a miracle. The Royals have already won two games on this road swing, I expected zero or one. If they can steal one today or tomorrow, that's a .500 trip and a record of 14-27.

So what if Greinke provides a spark as the Royals enter the soft part of their schedule, a 19-game stretch, and the bullpen, anchored by Jeremy Affedlt, suddenly becomes airtight? What if they win 16 of 19 and sit at .500 in the middle of June? In my head, I know this won't happen. But hope is a funny thing. We cling to it to the last. I know I do and will continue for a while yet.

As for Affeldt: Without getting into to it in detail, I'm glad the Royals moved Affeldt to the bullpen. In general, I am against this. Starting pitchers are too valuable and you don't want to limit the innings of one of your best pitchers if he has the ability to throw 200 or more effectively. Yes, closers have value just not as much as the average fan and the mainsteam media thinks. And the ones who have the most value are a very select bunch - Mariano, Gagne, et al.

In Affeldt's case, however, he just hasn't been the same pitcher in a starting role, for whatever reason. And he has enough starts under his belt at this point to draw some conclusions. His dominance as a reliever last season suggest that Affledt could join that select group of dominant closers. If he does, the Royals will have a valuable weapon and a suddenly valuable trading chip.

Anderson keeps the pace

Unlike his last start, when he waited till the seventh inning to get bombed, Brian Anderson wasted no time in getting clubbed last night, giving up six runs in three innings. Thus, he keeps pace in his quest to surrender the most runs in modern big-league history:

RUNS                          YEAR      R     

1    Brian Anderson           2004      233*

2    Snake Wiltse             1902      226   

3    Bill Carrick             1900      224   

4    Joe McGinnity            1901      219   

5    Chick Fraser             1901      210   

6    Pete Dowling             1901      209   

T7   Bobo Newsom              1938      205   

T7   Togie Pittinger          1903      205   

9    Pink Hawley              1900      204   

10   Bill Carrick             1901      198

* projected total through May 21

Northern League season is here!

I don't plan in going into it too much in this forum, but the Northern League is part of my beat for .
The Star. This week, I wrote my 2004 Northern League preview, the best part of which is a reference to the Watson's girl. By the way, the team capsules were arranged into 'Western' and 'Eastern' divisions. This is not correct - the league realigned into a North-South arrangement this season. It wasn't my error and I wasn't in that night to catch it. The T-Bones have drawn over 5,000 fans for both of their games so far. I've been asked whether I think the Royals bad start hurts or helps the T-Bones. I really don't think it has any effect at all. The T-Bones have really carved out a nice little niche for themselves. They play in a league that is well-run and the franchise should be on solid footing for a long time.

It’s that time again!

Three games at Wrigley. Nothing better. No Sosa, Wood or Prior is an obvious advantage, but a little disappointing from the perspective of a fan. My dream of a 4-2 road trip is within reach, though the Birds must hit against a guy named Sergio Mitre, who is allowing lefthanders a .429 average. I already have images of Edmonds going deep to the opposite field, center field and, finally, right field in a monster 3-HR day. TLR has my favorite (though perhaps not the best) batting lineup in place today, so that is sweet. Womack and Lankford (2 lefties) at the top.

The question is: Danny Mac/Al or Chip/Stoney. I love Steve Stone and really enjoy Dan Mclauglin, so a toggle scenario may be in order. Too bad Joe Buck is not on the call, then the decision would be made for me – all Cubs announcers. Who wants to hear Joe sing and act like a big goof? Danny Mac has elevated himself above Joe Buck in my mind by a long shot. A topic I am eager to soon re-visit in full.

If the Birds do take 2-of-3, they would be in great position to take advantage of the losers of this weekend’s divisional series involving Houston-Cincinnati and Milwaukee-Pittsburgh. Roy Oswalt is winless in his last six starts. By contrast, Reds starter Pesky Paul Wilson is 6-0 this season.

Not only did So Taguchi reach base 5 times on Thursday, but he went from first to third on a roller to 3B by Matheny. Gooch just seems to make things happen and he is now hitting .295.

Scott Rolen (.342) is the only Cards’ regular hitting above .300.

There is a lot to like about Kiko Calero. He throws a super nasty curve; one of those sweeping breaking balls that makes hitters look helpless. And he has a cool name that conjures an image of a great jazz musician.

Al Hrabowski likes to reference ‘foot speed’ as if there is an alternative type of speed. Bothers me, but many other announcers do the same thing.

From the Farm: I heard a great interview with Tom Hart, voice of the Tennessee Smokies (Double-A). He was discussing Brad Thompson’s new minor league record of 56 2/3 consecutive shutout innings. Two items stood out: The minor-league mark was set 87 years ago. And Thompson is not even listed in the Smokies’ program because he was not expected to be there. Crazy.

Meet the Mets Who would have thought that Todd Zeille and Ricky Bottalico would still be in MLB in 2004? Bottalico has a 0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings.

Not Super: Joe McEwing has no business playing in MLB. Sure, I like the guy. But he had 278 at-bats in 2003! This is a career .251/.306/.365 hitter who is slugging under .300 for the THIRD consecutive season. Super Joe? Nope.

Stomach puncher

I had, what I thought, a decent post all set to publish. Then the stomach punch ninth from the Izzy Man. Worse loss of this season, especially factoring in that it was the first game of a six-game road trip, the Cubs are playing without Prior and Sosa and the Astros actually lost in Clemens’ last start. Perhaps the shabby, careless outfield defense had a monumental karmic effect and all subsequent Mets weak liners and broken-bat flies were destined to drop where the Redbirds weren’t. It is losses like this that have me questioning whether I should record the following night’s game.

Before I could hiss at my cat, slap at an empty beer bottle or attempt to fling my remote through the television, I quickly deleted the game and switched to Baseball Tonight to catch the finals. Seeing 27-year-old unknown D-backs catcher Robby Hammock jump up-and-down about six times on his way to maul RJ after his perfect game made me feel kind of fuzzy, so the edge of the loss quickly wore off and I am able to write something free of major anger. But tomorrow’s game certainly has lost much of its appeal. And the Astros won. Better go with T-wolves-Kings Game 7 as my featured presentation tonight.

Time for a winning streak

Eventually, the Cardinals will have to go on a significant winning streak to be grouped with the Astros and Cubs rather than the Reds, Brewers and Pirates. An obvious statement, but true considering that the NL Wild Card is likely to emerge from the NL Central. A streak of six wins in a row, or 9-of-11 or 10-of-12 etc. would suffice. So I am hoping the Birds take 2-of-3 in New York and 2-of-3 in Chicago before coming home and sweeping the Pirates in three games. That would put STL in a position to pull even with Houston in an end-of-May three-game road series that follows the three-game homestand vs. Pittsburgh. Sounds like a plan.

A losing road trip would be a huge problem considering the upcoming June schedule. I figure the Cards cannot be any less than three games over .500 when July 1 hits. And that is a very conservative goal, though the July sked looks juicy for potential Ws. The Mets (18-20) will have Tom Glavine facing Matt Morris on Tuesday in an intriguing matchup. Glavine is 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA after his rough 2003 season. The Cardinals have a 2.98 ERA in May, the NL’s second best.

Chance for Edgar: Edgar Renteria is 10-for-20 against Glavine, with two doubles and two walks.

Greek God: Kevin Youkilis, whom Billy Beane dubbed the Greek God of Walks in Moneyball, experienced this season’s funniest moment last weekend. After hitting his first MLB homer, he reached the dugout where absolutely no one was waiting to greet him. Rookie hazing. So Youkilis began to give phantom high fives and shoulder bumps. Totally hilarious. After a lengthy pause, everyone rushed over to Youkilis and slapped some skin with him with enormous smiles. Classic moment.

Speaking of Classic: I saw a large chunk of Roger Clemens’ 20-K game against the Mariners in 1986 (on NESN) – and again last night on Classic. It was really mind-blowing to see the similarity between today’s Clemens and the 1986 version. Sure, he threw a few mph faster in ‘86, but his ability to nail the corners and work inside and outside remains the same today. He also has never veered from his commitment to back hitters off the plate with high heat inside. He made most of the M’s look ridiculous, but the futile at-bats by Phil Bradley and Ivan Calderon were very laughable. Bradley K’d all four times.

Hank Aaron didn't think Clemens should have won the AL's 1986 MVP, saying pitchers didn't deserve such an award. “I wish he were still playing,” Clemens said at the time. “I'd probably crack his head open to show him how valuable I was.”

ESPN correspondence

Dispatch number thirteen for 2004 is up.

Homestand concludes at 4-2

I’ll take the 4-2 mark, though both losses were by one agonizing run and very winnable. Sunday’s game was a particularly frustrating loss considering the awful lineup the Marlins used. If Scott Rolen handles a tough short-hopper in the fourth inning, who knows what would’ve occurred had those two unearned runs not scored. But with Woody Williams allowing just one earned run in seven innings (on 124 pitches), it was not a complete bummer of a game. The starters continue to roll and are No. 2 in MLB with 22 quality starts.

Quality Starts: One thing about QS’ bug me. First, if a pitcher throws a complete game, I think that should be an automatic QS. But if Pitcher A throws nine innings and allows four runs, that is not a QS (tell me if I’m wrong). If Pitcher B throws six inning and allows three runs, that qualifies as a QS. But A would have a game ERA of 4.00 while B would be at 4.50 for the single game. Kind of bothers me, though scenario A rarely occurs.

Nice Numbers: Chris Carpenter leads the Cards with 31 strikeouts and has the fewest walks among starters at 13. Jason Marquis, Carpenter and Matt Morris each rank in the top 10 in the NL in groundout/flyout ratio. That is great, though Tony Womack’s throwing woes will continue to a big factor.

Rolen’s House of Horror: I learned while watching the KPLR-11 broadcast that Scott Rolen lives in Vincent Price’s old home. Very cool - and creepy.

Rocket and Piazza Together? I am eager to see Roger Clemens start the All-Star Game with Mike Piazza as his battery mate. That will be loads of good times. Seems inevitable.

Anderson keeps pace - barely

Brian Anderson had me a little worried for a second there. Entering the 7th, Anderson had allowed only one run and the Royals held the lead, 2-1. Thankfully, a few doubles later, Anderson was in the showers and the A's went on to win 6-2. Anderson allowed four of the runs but still is on pace to set the big-league record for runs allowed in a season since 1900. Here is the updated chart:

RUNS                          YEAR      RA

1    Brian Anderson           2004      231*

2    Snake Wiltse             1902      226   

3    Bill Carrick             1900      224   

4    Joe McGinnity            1901      219   

5    Chick Fraser             1901      210   

6    Pete Dowling             1901      209   

T7   Bobo Newsom              1938      205   

T7   Togie Pittinger          1903      205   

9    Pink Hawley              1900      204   

10   Bill Carrick             1901      198 

* - projected total

Now or never

The Royals have lost two straight uninspired games against the A’s, failing to capitalize on the promise of two consecutive victories earlier this week.

The team is just plain bad. They were bad in April and, in May, they have been even worse. Offensively, they are the worst team in the American League this May. The starting pitching has been better this month, though not by much, and the bullpen has been a disaster when it comes to protecting leads.

It’s still too soon to pull the plug. At this point of the season, as long as a team is within 10-11 games, I think it is realistic to continue to play for the current campaign because a week of winning can get you back into it. The Royals schedule over the next month is pretty favorable with the majority of games coming at home and many of them against teams like Detroit, Montreal and the Mets. However, after today, another road trip looms, six games at Texas and Oakland. The Royals need to win today and then split on the road trip, a quest which seems pretty unlikely to complete given the way the team is playing.

If they can accomplish those modest goals, the Royals would be about 15-26 and 11 or so games back. Then, over the next three weeks, the Royals will play for their season. 15 of the 19 games will be at home and the four road games will be in Detroit. The Royals will need to go something like 15-4 in those games to get back to .500. Unlikely? You bet. Impossible? Close to it. But if you dare to dream, that would put the R’s at 30-30 one month from today which was their record after sixty games last season. They’d be probably six or seven games behind the Twins who are playing really good baseball and are, again, clearly the team to beat in the Central. At that point, the slate would be clean and we could re-examine what the team can do to improve for a run this season.


While this scenario is not impossible it is, I freely admit, far-fetched. More likely, even if Brian Anderson is able to hold the early 2-0 lead he has today, the Royals will be fortunate to win two games this week on the road trip. That puts them at 14-27. And even though the road games during that 19-game stretch are in Detroit, the team has been so bad on the road it is more reasonable to expect the Tigers to take 3 of 4. That’s 15-30. As for the fifteen home games, the Royals have been basically a .500 team at home. We’ll be generous and give them 8-7. That’s 23-37, probably 12 or 13 games out.

The next month will make or break the Royals season – but not the organization. For the next week, I will continue to write about the team as if they can contend this season. Then I’ll have to assess day by day whether it is reasonable to continue to do so. As soon as I’ve ascertained that it is time to pull the plug, then I’ll begin to write from the perspective of an organization trying to position themselves for the future. The time is clearly now or never for the Royals. Beginning today. Root hard, pray, do whatever. There may not be much more time till it just won’t matter.