Royalties & Cardinalate

Miller 5, Budweiser 1

Six games, one win against Milwaukee in 2004. The Redbirds are 8-4 vs. the rest of the NL. Another puzzling aspect of this weekend slide is that mighty STL has scored four runs in their past three games. Brewers pitcher Chris Saenz was making his MLB debut as an emergency starter on Saturday. He threw 93 pitches, 58 for strikes and allowed two hits in six innings. So in the first two games at Miller Park, the Cards are 11-for-61 at the plate.

Still, it is an exciting time. The recent offensive struggles are just a natural blip in a long season, but the performance of Woody Williams on Saturday was brilliant. He had some tough luck early (hit-and-run single that normally is a routine 4-3 ground out) but allowed two runs and just three hits in six innings. Plus, he struck out five after striking out 0 in 5 2/3 on April 18 vs. the Rockies. His location was great and his rhythm was good. So Morris, Suppan, Carpenter, Williams and Marquis each had a very good start this past time through the rotation.

What the hell is TLR’s deal with Julian Taverez? It is Jeff Fassero all over again - though Taverez occasionally throws a nasty off-speed pitch and does have some stuff. But 10 games and seven innings (and four consecutive appearances) are quite a bit for a pitcher with five poor outings already. His past three appearances were in tight games. Hitters are batting .345 against him with a .860 OPS. Esteban Yan-like numbers. Eek.

Bo Hart batting lead off? He struck out all three times he batted and, well, he is a crappy guy to bat lead off. Really, he is not a big-league hitter, as evidenced by his inability to draw a single walk this spring. Renteria would be nice at that spot, but to have a weak six through nine (with the exception of Reggie Sanders) would cause the lineup to be out of balance, or at least one could argue that. I guess I want Tony Womack back, man, that is scary.

With TiVo, you can satisfy all of those cravings to see if calls are actually correct, and I am flabbergasted at how many times runners are called out because the ball beat them. I realize this is an old perspective, but, damn if it's not completely true. In Saturday’s game, Woodster picked off Geoff Jenkins on that old school fake-to-third-throw-to-first trick and chased him to second. He lobbed a throw to Edgar, who quickly applied the tag and the out! call was made. But Jenkins was safe. Essentially, if the ball beats the runner and the player receiving the throw makes a quick, swipe tag, then he is OUT! That kind of blows, but replay in MLB is a touchy topic and any type of implementation would be a logistical nightmare.

More injuries

The never ending merry-go-round of Royal injuries just keeps spinning. Kevin Appier turned in an encouraging first inning last night against Minnesota. He then faced one batter in the second and that was it. Appier felt a twinge in the ‘medial area’ of his elbow. More will be known today but you have to assume the worst. This is sheer speculation, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Appier has thrown his last big-league pitch. I really hope I am overreacting.

Assuming Appier is, at the very least, headed for a 15-day D.L. stint, what do the Royals do with his roster spot. Here are the choices as I see them:

1. call up Jamey Wright
2. call up Chris George
3. call up a position player and make Dennys Reyes a starter
4. call up Zack Greinke

My guess is that the Royals will not recall Greinke. George and Wright are neither one very exciting options and I’d give the edge to Wright simply because he’s right-handed and I think the R’s have seen plenty of soft-tossing lefties already this season. I’d say the Reyes option is an near-impossibility except that Tony Pena seems to have developed a strange affinity for the porty southpaw. He used him last night in the ninth inning. Look for Wright to get the call. I suppose Brad Voyles is an option as well but I think the Royals are more interested in getting him out of the organization than getting him back to K.C.

Sweeney hurt….again: Meanwhile, the ever-brittle slugger Mike Sweeney missed his second straight game with a wrist injury. Sweeney aggravated the wrist while swinging a weighted bat before Thursday’s game. The MRI was negative. There is just some swelling and soreness. More than likely, he will be back in the lineup tonight.
Sweeney’s constant physical problems are really starting to wear on my nerves. It’s not that he is necessarily unwilling to play through injuries. By all accounts, Sweeney played through a great deal of discomfort during the second half of last season when his back was hurting. But he is always hurt. He finds more ways to injury himself doing ordinary exercises than any player I can remember. What is it with this guy? The Royals’ season is heading straight down the toilet and they really could have used their second-best hitter these last two games.

Good injury news: The news was good on Mike MacDougal last night. He pitched a clean inning for Omaha, striking out one. The team hasn’t made an official announcement but I anticipate him being activated Sunday. Along the same lines, Desi Relaford is healing fast and after a two or three-game stint for the O-Royals, he should be back at the K on Tuesday. Angel Berroa will likely take a turn in Omaha before coming back at the end of the month.

Bullpen analysis: Frankly, I don’t want to talk about it.

The time is now

Fourteen games is nearly 10% of the season. At some point, you have to stop referring to a team’s ‘start’ and begin evaluating them as contender or non-contender. At 5-9, last place in the AL Central, 4 ½ games behind the Twins, the Royals are wading into some treacherous waters. Right now, at this second, there is no need to panic. But with the Twins coming into the K this weekend, the Royals need to start stringing together some wins. They need to win at least 2 of 3.

If they sweep the Twins – and the Royals have given us no reason to think this is possible – they’d be 8-9, 1 ½ behind the Twins, without considering the other division foes. This time of the year, that is how quickly things can turn. If that were to happen, we’d all have a little more bounce in our steps. Climbing that close to .500 and that close to first-place would really take some of the short-term pressure off the team. After all, treading at or just-above .500 into late June or early July would mark any team in this year’s division as a contender.

Win 2 of 3, then you’re looking at 7-10, 2 ½ games back. The skies would still have considerably brightened. But lose two of three? 6-11, 5 ½ back. A sweep? Gulp. 5-12, 7 ½. The Royals would have seriously established themselves as a non-contender. 7 ½ games is a lot to make up and is there any reason to think the team can outplay the entire rest of the division by that much over the rest of the season? Of course they could do it but the statistical odds would be stacking up against them. All this is an roundabout way of saying that this three-game set against Minnesota is as crucial as a mid-April series can be. That’s what happens when you start 5-9.

Matt Stairs monthly splits. I can’t remember if I mention it here, but Matt Stairs has put up some pretty wicked monthly splits over the last few years. His April-to-September OPS for the last three years is as follows: .623, .628, 1.232, .874, .843, .898. Over the course of his career, the split isn’t nearly as pronounced and there is really not any reason it should be. So far this year, Stairs is at .661.

Benito’s rag arm. The Twins have really taken advantage of the Royals on the basepaths so far this year. Of course, this should be as not real surprise. The young Benito Santiago who would gun down prospective base thieves from his knees is long gone. Santiago’s CS% has gone from .424 in 2000 to .185 last season. So far this year, opponents are 10-13 against Santiago. Even with all of the lefthanders, the pitching staff doesn’t seem to do a great job of controlling the running game and this might become a real problem when other teams notice the Twins’ success on the basepaths against KC.

Killer Twins. Speaking of those damnable Twins, grab Jacque Jones and Luis Rivas for your fantasy team when they are playing the Royals. Jones has an .854 OPS the last three years (.803 overall) against KC and is at 1.500 with 4 steals this season. Rivas is even more dangerous against KC. Entering this season, Rivas had a .926 OPS against KC (.688 overall) and, even more amazing, had hit 11 of his 19 career home runs against the Royals. In the series last week, Rivas was 4-10 and hit another home run.

Pitches per plate appearance. Who has a stronger effect on the length of the average plate appearance – the hitter or the pitcher? I don’t have an answer though my guess is that it is that it is the batter and that it probably isn’t really very close. I’d love to do a study of this but I haven’t had the time to formulate a method for making this measurement. If someone knows of a study that looks into this issue, drop me a line. I’d love to see it. This topic has been on my mind ever since Frank Thomas’ 17 pitch at-bat against Darrell May earlier this season.

Some in-case-you-missed-it items. I picked up a little tidbit during the Phillies-Marlins telecast the other night that I hadn’t heard before. Last season, Billy Wagner threw 159 documented pitches of 100 mph or more. In all the rest of big-league baseball, there were only 40 of these pitches. Wow…Colt Griffin is having big-time problems in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League. In his last outing, Colt went 3 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 walks and striking out 4. It gets worse. He also hit 2 batters and – get this – uncorked FIVE WILD PITCHES. All of this added up to 5 earned runs allowed. At this juncture, it certainly doesn’t appear that Griffin has any idea where the ball is going and this is his fourth year of pro ball. Not good.

Mac is almost back. The team's optimism regarding Mike MacDougal remains unabated even in light of his inability to finish the ninth inning of a game the O-Royals led 9-1 before Mac took the mound. MacDougal's allowed four runs in 2/3 of an inning.

Frankly, I don't understand the apparent lack of concern. "Rehab numbers don't mean anything," Tony Pena says. Allard Baird said that MacDougal hit 96 on the gun. He is going to pitch another inning tonight. If he doesn't melt down again, then he'll be activated for the game Sunday. And, yes, the team still says that he will slide right back into the closer's role. None of this makes a whole lot of sense to me but all I can do is report what they say. Anyway, keep an eye out for Omaha's box score from tonight.

'Birds set HR mark

After 15 games the Redbirds have 36 home runs, more than any team has ever had in their first 15 games. The previous mark was 34 by the 2000 Cardinals. The Expos have 26 total runs after 16 games. Where’s Warren Cromartie when you need him?

Scott Rolen hit home run No. 200 of his career on Wednesday night in Houston. He reached 200 seven months quicker than Mike Schimdt. My favorite all-time Phillie? Have to go with Bake McBride.

Last night Matt Morris threw 17 of 23 first-pitch strikes and was working as if he needed to get to a Phish show after the game. He was pitching as fast as I have ever seen anyone pitch in MLB. When he has a great rhythm, it is beautiful to watch, but I think this approach, at times, snowballs in a negative way when he is struggling. Morris finally was tossing 91 and 92 mph fastballs, so he seems to be back on track.

Albert Pujols has only one strikeout in 70 plate appearances this year. He is on pace for 150 walks and 12 strikeouts.

From Redbird Nation:

“The Cardinals are trying to do something you don't normally see outside of Coors Field: they're leading the majors in home runs hit (with 34) and in home runs allowed (with 25). That's an insane 4.21 homers per game, more than you'd see in your typical Rockies game (3.46).

Best win of this season

It remains too early to rely much on statistical input, but regardless of how kind Tony Womack’s numbers presently look (.431 OBP, 11 runs in 12 games) the fact that he is working 3-2 counts (twice on Tuesday), is walking (7) and is getting bunt hits is making it hard for me to stand firm that he was a crappy signing. He is even having great luck as indicated by his check swing bunt single with the bases loaded in the 7th inning on Tuesday night. Given his villainous status in STL and his poor career OBP (.317), it was easy to vent against his arrival, but damn, he has been good. He is 7-for-7 on SBs.

The Astros might be the most unlikable good team in the NL, or, at least, they drive me nuts. I do not enjoy Berkman, Bagwell, Biggio, Hidalgo, Ausmus or Kent at all. Bagwells’ freaky stance is fun too watch, but he has been so agonizing to Redbirds fans, he is a tired act, though a good guy. But it is great to have a team to vehemently root against. Sure, the Cubs are our primary rival, but I always want them in the division race.

Jeff Suppan was great on Tuesday, throwing nasty sliders and switching from his slider, to a 92-mph fastball to 72 mph curves. His 3-2 slider in the 3rd to Jeff Kent was a perfect pitch and was an ideal situation for a K with runners on first and third and one out. He ‘statued’ Kent.

Albert Pujols is at .302 for this month, and has hit .300 or better in nine straight months, tops in MLB. Edgar Renteria is third at seven straight. When Phat lined a high and inside 1-2 pitch down the 315-foot LF line for a HR on Tuesday, my jaw dropped. It was a great slow-mo TiVo moment and as incredible as Pujols’ ability to turn on that pitch was, Wade Miller meant for the pitch to be in his eyes.

Reggie Sanders laid down a bunt with runners on first and third and no one out in the 7th. Good bunt, bad play.

Considering the road opponent, Suppan’s start and Izzy tossing 1 2/3 for the save, Tuesday’s 5-3 win at Orange Juice Field is this season’s best Cards win to date.

Pujols is batting .432 career with the bases loaded.

Currently, Marco Scutaro has more RBI than Carlos Delgado.

Latest dispatch from the perimeter of the ESPN empire has hit the Web.

I weep for our pitching

Latest Stat Guy attempts to spread the word: for pitchers, strikeouts are a good thing. A very good thing indeed. (PS- the nifty little charts that I put together that appear in the paper aren't making it to the Web. This troubles me. I'll make inquiries.)

Resting Redbirds
head to Houston

With two off days in a five-day span following 10 straight game days, the Cardinals will alter the rotation’s flow for the first time this week. Chris Carpenter’s turn will be skipped and Jeff Suppan will pitch on six days rest Tuesday in the series-opener at Houston. Carpenter’s next start would have been Wednesday. Matt Morris and Jason Marquis will go on regular rest Wednesday and Thursday. Makes sense to me.

I am mildy terrified at what might go down in the three games at Minute Maid Park, as in 11-5 or 12-6-type of losses. Clemens pitched on Sunday, so thankfully we will not see him. Rocket is 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA, allowing seven hits in 20 innings. Pure sickness. Considering what is going down with Mark Prior, it is not difficult to see why Houston is 9-4 and the Cubbies are at .500. Anyway, we can only hope the Redbirds outslug Houston and that our pitchers can hold them to an average of six runs or less in the series. Is that asking too much?

Woody pitched very craftily through five on Sunday, but he still cannot strike out a batter. He had 33 two-strike pitches and zero K’s. He was gone after six regardless, but if Marlon Anderson makes a difficult – but very feasible – snag on Kit Bellow’s deep fly to LF in the sixth, four runs do not score and Woody likely gets the W. But you cannot expect a 2B to make that play, so one of the team’s weaknesses simply was exposed. Frustrating. I was in the car headed to work when Pujols just missed a walk-off Salami. Glad I was not at home, it would’ve been too much to take.

Runnin’ Redbirds: This thing is out of hand. I love to watch the stolen base, but when Albert Pujols is trying to swipe 2B with 1 out and a 0-0 count on Jedmonds, that is dumb. Maybe he missed a sign, but seeing the grumpy look from TLR afterward seems to indicate Phat was being too eager. They are 17-for-20 on SBs.

The Mets signed Ricky Bottalico to a minor league contract, assigning him to Triple-A Norfolk. He is only 34, so I suppose he has some 'hanging around' time left. His time in STL was awful.

The Red-Cubs weekend series receives the honor of Best Series So Far. Easy call; those three games were all down to the last at-bat and full of wind-blown oddities.

Darrell May . . . Ouch.

Budweiser 2, Coors 0

(. . .from Saturday, had to re-publish)

Wood throws 131: First, let me get this out there. Kerry Wood should not be throwing 131 pitches in one game in April. I can offer no argument to the contrary, but would love to hear another take on why it is OK that Dusty Baker left Wood in as long as he did on Saturday. Making matters worse, Wood blew a two-run lead to the bottom of the Reds order and left after 8 2/3 - and rather than improve to 3-0, he dropped to 2-1.

Is a winning record near?:Everything has a tinge of delight in STL land after two solid victories (8-4 and 13-5) over 4-7 Colorado. The Redbirds are back to .500 and won back-to-back home games for the first time in 2004. Mark McGwire Day featured 46,500 fans and from what I saw on television it certainly was a postcard day at Busch Stadium. Currently, Scott Rolen is ahead of Mac’s 70-homer 1998 pace. Scotty Roles is ablaze and leads MLB in homers (7) and RBI (23). He is batting .367 and, oddly, has yet to hit a double. He had 49 in 2003. Rolen’s best year was in 1998 when hit he hit 31 HRs and had 110 RBI, so hopefully he’ll reach (and surpass) those numbers in 2004.

Jason Marquis is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his past two starts. He threw 107 pitches in seven innings on Saturday and followed Matt Morris’ solid Friday start very well. Morris still was not surpassing 90 mph on Friday night, so there is cause for concern. Hitters are pulling his fastballs too easily.

After his scoreless inning of relief on Saturday, Mike Lincoln has now allowed a run in only one of his six appearances. He has pitched at least one inning in each appearance, so it not entirely a bogus stat.

Reggie Sanders K’d three more times on Saturday and has struck out 16 times in 12 games. He has whiffed 1,333 times in 1,448 career games, so this is about right. Not sure he should bat No. 2 anymore, however.

Albert Pujols has walked 11 times and struck out once. I love it.

The Cards received a combined six hits from Tony Womack and So Taguchi from the lead off spot on Friday and Saturday, a major bonus for this loaded lineup. I like their names inverted: Tony Taguchi and So Womack.

Womack and Sanders began Friday’s game with back-to-back home runs, the first time that's happened since August 17, 1958, which was against a guy named Koufax. He is better than Denny Stark. That span is 7,176 games.