Royalties & Cardinalate

He's not even the coolest
Cedeno I've seen play

Walt Jocketty pulled one of his typical last-minute deals as the Redbirds got Mets outfielder Roger Cedeno and cash from the Mets for infielder Wilson Delgado and catcher Chris Widger. Cedeno is 29, so he should have a couple more near-prime seasons left. Except for one thing: he is sliding.

Though Cedeno has a career on-base percentage of .343, he has slipped to .318 (2002) and .320 (2003) the past two seasons. He is a .275 career hitter and though he has 208 career steals, he was just 14-for-23 in thefts last season. Even more precarious is Cedeno’s plate discipline. He had 86 strikeouts and 38 walks in 484 at-bats in 2003. He also is a poor fielder. He is a switch-hitter, so TLR probably digs that.

Cedeno has played for Los Angeles (1995-1998), Houston (2000) and New York (1999, 2002-2003).

Cedeno is the fifth outfielder and will likely play over So Taguchi when Ray Lankford sits. Or perhaps he’ll split time with Lankford and also bat against lefties. He will lead off when he does play, though it makes little logical sense since he has a Vina-like OBP. Tony Womack is awful at getting on base, but Marlon Anderson is about the same with his career .316 OBP. So there is no answer lurking at second based. I suppose it just brings up the ‘why Edgar Renteria should lead off’ argument that I already covered.

I am terribly concerned about the first two spots in the batting order since Phat Albert bats third and needs those guys to get on base at least .340 or better.

I guess Cody McKay will officially be the backup catcher. Good story.

Oh, and the loss of Wilson Delgado and Chris Widger is not significant. Delgado is 31 and is a career .238 hitter. Widger is 32 and McKay’s emergence (or, at least, presence) made him extraneous.

Waiting for The Final Cuts

(I love Pink Floyd, hence that headline) As we enter the final weekend before this season begins, the Redbirds will travel to Memphis with 28 players for their two-game exhibition series against the Class AAA Redbirds. Of the six players competing for the three remaining open spots, two are catchers: Cody McKay and Chris Widger.

That's cool. Mike Matheny will hit well for the first half of the season and is great at handling the staff, so I have no issue with him starting, though I'd much prefer they'd have made Eli Marrero the man. My argument is that Marrero's offense more than makes up for his lesser defensive skills compared with Mike Mac's. Defense is a little overrated. But Marrero was shipped off in the J.D. Drew trade, so we will accept that Eli is gone. And perhaps re-visit that potentially ill-fated trade very soon.

So, who should backup Matheny? Probably Widger, and not because of his 500,000-dollar guaranteed contact. He had a great September in 2003 (1.050 OPS in 33 at-bats). Both players have hit under .200 in spring, so why go with a more inexperienced catcher? But, of all things, DO NOT keep both. General Manager Walt Jocketty said Thursday it was very likely that two of the five bench players will be catchers, i.e., Chris Widger and Cody McKay.

Say what?! Let us hope this is Bunk.

Outfielder So Taguchi and second baseman/outfielder Marlon Anderson have officially made the team. So if McKay does not make the 25-man, it looks good for rookie infielder Hector Luna and looks bad for Bodhi Hart, Emil Brown and/or Brian Hunter. Hunter and Hart have no business making this team right now as we have previously outlined, but with the ongoing travesty of Tony Womack, Brown might get burned. He is a career .200/.289/.302 hitter in 404 at-bats with the Pirates. But he did have a .484 on-base percentage and slugged .643 in the Mexican League last winter and is not too old at 29.

Luna has to make the roster or he goes to the Indians because of the Rule 5 draft conditions. No reason to have him and Hart since Anderson is on the team already and Womack (Grrr.)

I have only looked at my Opening Day tickets once all week.

Reliever Kiko Calero will be back as soon as he proves he is full strength, so that likely means Jason Simontacchi will be sent down before May unless he performs well or if there is an injury.

Jason Marquis, the Cardinals' slated starter for their second game, hit a two-run homer on Thursday off Florida superstud Josh Beckett and gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings in the Cards' win on Thursday. The Cardinals scored five runs in two innings off Marlins reliever Tanyon Sturtze, whom you might recall led all of baseball in nearly every negative pitching stat in 2002 when he went 4-18 for the Devil Rays.

From columnist Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, speaking on Bo Hart:

'His aggressive hitting approach might serve him better coming off the bench.'

I am not saying Gordo is wacko, but I do not like these kind of statements. Hart has 70 plate appearances this spring with 0 walks. His approach is very problematic and quite flawed. He would serve himself better to take some pitches.

Prez Shrub will be the first president to throw out a first pitch for a game in St. Louis. I was surprised to learn this given the tradition here. Guess I?ll be part of history.

MacDougal heads to D.L. as
Royals set opening-day roster

The Royals made their final cuts a couple of hours ago and now we know the 25 players who will occupy the opening day roster. Without further ado:

INFIELDERS: Mike Sweeney (First base); Desi Relaford (Second base); Angel Berroa (Shortstop); Joe Randa (Third base); Ken Harvey (backup first basemen, primary DH); Tony Graffanino (Semi-platoon partner at Second base, primary utility infielder); Mendy Lopez (Utility player, can play some outfield if needed).

CATCHERS: Benito Santiago (Primary catcher); Kelly Stinnett (Backup catcher)

OUTFIELDERS: Aaron Guiel (Left field); Carlos Beltran (Center field); Juan Gonzalez (Right field); Matt Stairs (Backup at Left field, Right field and First base. Semi-platoon partner with Harvey as DH); Rich Thompson (Fifth outfielder, defensive replacement at all three positions and primary pinch-runner).

STARTING PITCHERS: 1. Brian Anderson; 2. Darrell May; 3. Jeremy Affeldt; 4. Jimmy Gobble. (Kevin Appier will open the season on the disabled list. He is eligible to return April 10 and will be the fifth member of the rotation when he is activated.)

CLOSER: Curt Leskanic. (Mike MacDougal will begin the season on the disabled list. Like Appier, he is eligible to be activated April 10. While Leskanic will be the primary closer in MacDougal's absence, Tony Pena said that he will not use Leskanic in back-to-back outings unless he has an inordinately low pitch count in the first outing. When Leskanic is unavailable, Pena will use a committee to close out games.)

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS: Jason Grimsley; Scott Sullivan; D.J. Carrasco; Nate Field; Shawn Camp.

LEFT-HANDED RELIEVER: Dennys Reyes.

So there we are. The news about MacDougal was not unexpected though the news about him the last few days had been favorable enough that I was hoping that he might be ready from the get-go. I'd like to see him get an outing or two before camp breaks so that we can get some reports on his velocity in game situations. Reportedly, he is back to his playing weight.

Other than David DeJesus - I won't get into that again, at least until he starts putting up a .410 OBP at Omaha - there weren't any demotions that I find particularly objectionable. Thompson was really on the bubble. He did not make the team based on his spring performance, which was poor. The team was willing to overlook some defensive lapses from their Rule V pick based on the original scouting reports from Brian Murphy. If indeed Thompson can prove to be a plus-defender he will serve a valuable role in spotting Stairs and JuanGone in the late innings, both as a d-sub but even more importantly as a pinch runner. Thompson has stolen 165 bases in his 4 professional seasons (I don't have his success ratio for his first 2 seasons, but for the last 2 it was a sterling 82%). He can be a game-changing weapon in late-inning situations. Of course, his hitting is so poor that every at-bat he gets undermines his roster value.

The biggest surprise in camp was Shawn Camp. The 28-year career busher was signed by the Royals as a minor-league free agent last fall. He is another refugee from the Pirate organization. Camp is the sort of guy who can become a valuable (and cheap_) bullpen guy. His K:9 numbers in the minors were excellent and he struck out 10 batters in 12-1/3 this spring while walking only one. He's all upside and has zero financial risk.

I was a little surprised that the Royals kept Reyes. He has a history of command problems. While he was very good against left-handed hitters last year (they were 2-17 with a .452 OPS), he was pounded against righties (1.076 OPS. Ouch!). And over the last three years, as a compositie, he hasn't really shown that much dominance against lefties. What he has done is move around a lot. He keeps getting jobs without really earning them because he is a pitcher and he throws lefthanded. It's annoying to see the Royals fall into this trap but hopefully he'll be moved out when MacDougal returns before he can have an Albie Lopez-like influence on the team ERA.

Here’s to you Mr. Robinson

I certainly was very disappointed to see Kerry Robinson traded to the Padres, but it really has no impact on the team’s quality. He was very likeable, being a local (University City) boy, so it might reduce positive team harmony somewhat. Otherwise it was a pretty even deal. The fact that Robinson is my age also endeared me to him.

Robinson was traded to the Padres for OF Brian L. Hunter - who has played in exactly 1,000 games - a career .264/.313/.346 hitter and who once was a base stealing champion (74 in 1997 was his tops). But I do not value the stolen base much and at age 33 his theft-heavy days are dwindling. He has played for eight teams, seven really since he did not officially appear for the Padres. I’d much rather have K-Rob. Why? He is 30 and is yet to have more than 208 at-bats in a season. In 365 games, he is an anemic .263/.301/.322 hitter but he has talked at length the past several months about being much more patient and seeing more pitches. I was very much looking forward to the ‘new’ K-Rob, but, then again, history has proven that he is likely to not change much as a hitter. Looks like Ray Lankford is that much closer to claiming a majority of the LF ABs.

Couple quick notes I liked today from around MLB:

STL nemesis Kenny Lofton has been moved from the Yankees lead-off spot to the No. 9 spot. He is not pleased. Lofton is 8-for-50 (.160) this spring.

"I feel like I'm a leadoff hitter, and that's where I'm comfortable. I don't feel comfortable nowhere else," Lofton said.

"Spring training, that don't mean nothing to me," Lofton said. "I don't make a big deal about spring training. Some people do, I don't. I've never been a spring-training hitter.

"Once the games start, it's totally different. When the games
start, I start. Focus and concentration go to a whole new level."

****

Old dude Julio Franco said something really cool. That he plans on playing until he is 50.

“My plan is to play five more years, retire, then go the low minors and work my way back to the majors as a manager. When I retire, I want to manage in the majors, but I want to do it the right way, starting at the bottom and earning my way to the big leagues."

Appier shines again, Greinke doesn’t

It’s getting harder to not be excited about Kevin Appier. He had another excellent outing yesterday, pitching in the Omaha Royals AAA spring game against Oklahoma City. Appier went 49 pitches, his longest outing yet. He stretched those 49 pitches over four innings, allowing one hit, no runs, no walks. He struck out three. The limited results we have from Ape’s spring continue to back up the hyperbole that we keep hearing concerning Appier's increased velocity and command in this, his post-surgery season. A healthy and productive Appier might have an bigger impact on the AL Central race than the games played by Juan Gonzalez. In an article I wrote for The Star, I arrived at 4.30 as the team ERA the Royals need to target to win 90 games, which ought to win this year’s Central by a comfortable margin. I won’t got into the full details of the argument but if The Star doesn’t use the piece, I’ll post it here. Suffice to say, a revitalized Appier would go a long way towards achieving 4.30.

In other news, Zack Greinke had another shaky outing. He allowed 9 baserunners in four innings. While he kept the overall damage to a minimum – just two runs allowed – Greinke continues to have command problems for the first time in his professional career. He has now walked seven batters in 11-2/3. In 34 Class AA innings last year, he walked only five. Grienke’s struggles should turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Despite the control problems, he still hasn't coughed up a home run and has induced a significant number of double play balls. So it seems that even while battling location, he has retained his uncanny ability to keep hitters off-balance. In the meantime, any temptation the Royals might have had to rush Greinke into the rotation has been erased. I have no doubt that when Zack gets back to spotting his pitches, he’ll mow down AAA hitters like he has at every other level. And come the summer, we’ll be seeing him here in K.C. as possibly the final piece of a championship puzzle.

Lankford: From long-shot to starting LF?

I have officially begun to believe that Ray Lanford will indeed be the primary LF this season. This reality will not fully sink in until Opening Day when I actually see him playing. But the cheers he will receive when he takes his turn circling Busch Stadium in a red sports car will be enormous. I am eager for the opener for many reasons, but the annual tradition of introducing the 25 players and having each one take a lap around the stadium in a bright red car is one of many reasons openers in STL are so memorable. I bought my tickets the afternoon tickets went on-sale and had to settle for standing-room only, so that proves how intense folks here are about this great tradition. As for Lankford, here are a couple quotes from today:

"I don't know who's playing better than he is," manager Tony La Russa said.

Ray-Ray: "I went through a period where a guy throwing 83, I couldn't catch up. I could never figure out what it was -- and I'm not going to give you the secret now -- but Mitch and I, we're working on it. We kind of addressed some things."

Not much substance there and I am not convinced Mitchell Page is anything special as a hitting coach, though I have not broken down the team's numbers with Page as their hitting guru.

The Mystery of Womack

First, let us mention the worst deed Tony Womack has committed on the diamond:

He singled home the winning run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning to lift the Diamondbacks over the Cardinals 2-1 on a dark, ominous October Sunday night in the deciding Game 5 of their division series in 2001. The hit followed Womack's inability to successfully lay down a suicide squeeze.

No one can really figure out why Tony Womack (lifetime .315 OBP) was brought into camp, but I suppose the dreadful offensive spring Bo Hart has had was a major factor. Hart has more at-bats than any Redbird this spring (61) and has an OBP of .213. I realize it is spring, but he was not much better than that the last six weeks of last season. Marlon Anderson has hit .288 with a .345 OBP and 9 runs, so I would think he is still in the running for the starting 2B spot. Anderson and Womack each bat lefthanded, so it would be silly to have both of them make the team. Then again, it is silly that Womack is here at all. He is 34, just had Tommy John surgery last October and is a below-average defensive player. I want him to go away.

Beltran going Hollywood?

I don’t know if these Carlos Beltran-to-the Dodgers rumors have any legs but they haven’t gone away. The rumors are coming out of L.A. – here in K.C. we’ve heard nary a peep. If you haven’t heard, the proposed deal would send Beltran to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson and James Loney. At this juncture, with a division crown very much within the realm of possibility, I’d be against this trade. Beltran could be the best player in the American League this season. Let’s get his career year and then collect the draft picks when he walks. If the season goes to pot in the first half, then maybe you move him at the trade deadline if they can get a cache of prospects. Long term, Jackson and Loney would be a tremendous haul for Beltran. But we Royals fans aren’t thinking long term just yet.

Baird on the defensive

Spurred by my criticism of the Royals medical staff, Allard Baird responded to questions about the care injured players have been receiving. O.K., he might not have been responding to my cricism specifically but, well, you know. To quote: “I don’t see it as bad teaching or poor care. If I did, there would be adjustments made here. They would have already been made.” I already made my point about this earlier, but if injuries end up underming the efforts of what could be a division-winning ballclub, Baird will have to answer to standing up for his staff now. I’m not saying he’s wrong in doing so. I’m just saying he’d better be right. Meanwhile, Rob and Rany broached the question I posed regarding pre-emptive MRI’s in their ongoing dialogue. I would love to see this question posed to Allard Baird. They also pointed out that the injuries have robbed the Royals of the starting pitching depth which had accumulated. Sure enough, the R’s inked Jamie Wright to a deal yesterday. Wright will head to Omaha and his presence in the big-league rotation would almost certainly portend impending doom.

Royals starters in trouble?

I know I shouldn’t pay attention to spring stats but, hey, right now it’s all we have. The performance of the Royals’ project starting five is beginning to concern me:

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Anderson	14.0	17	9	1	3	5	5.79
May	12.0	6	6	0	5	6	3.75
Affeldt	19.2	24	10	2	4	7	4.58
Gobble	12.2	9	2	1	1	5	1.42
Appier	5.0	5	1	0	0	5	1.80
Totals	63.1	61	28	4	13	28	3.98

See! This is why you always have to go to the numbers. I sat down here, all prepared to write about how the Royals starting staff was in trouble. They still might be, but you certainly can’t come to that conclusion based on the spring stats. And Affeldt, especially, can be expected to do better than that stat-line. Considering how skewed Arizona numbers are towards offense, this is actually a pretty impressive performance. Still, that 3.98 K:9 is a source of concern. They’ll have to do better than that. Anything less than a 6 in this category would be an awful lot of fly balls hit in the air towards Aaron Guiel – exhibit number 1,000 why David DeJesus should be the left fielder.

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