Royalties & Cardinalate

A case for Renteria leading off

I agonized the past three seasons watching Fernando Vina bat lead-off for the Redbirds. Though I liked Vina, especially his stellar defensive range and ability to quickly turn the DP, he just was not a good lead off hitter. He always ranked near the bottom on the team in pitches seen per at bat, he obviously rarely walked (just 87 Ws in over 1,600 plate appearances) and had a cumulative OBP of roughly .340 the past three seasons. His ablilty to accumulate 20 HBPs a season helps that figure. Vina is clearly a poor leadoff hitter. But he looked like a leadoff hitter. Vina is gone now, but St. Louis has no one lined up to bat lead off now. The solution is not complicated, however, because they have an ideal guy in shortstop Edgar Renteria.

Renteria's ability to get on base has increased by leaps the past three seasons (.314, .364 and .394) and his Ks-to-Ws ratio has become very notable. Last season he struck out just 54 times in 587 at-bats and he drew 65 walks. He was 49-to-57 in 2002. He is a good baserunner, a good base stealer (34-for-41 in 2003), is patient and makes contact. Redbird Nation analyzed his career numbers as a leadoff hitter a couple of weeks ago and they were nearly identical to his career averages.

If La Russa does not wake up and move E-Rent up, then, well, maybe Ray Lankford would work. He does strike out way too much, but before his slide the past couple of years, he was a .370 or better OBP for several seasons. Problem is, I think he is past being able to be a rejuvenated player. Hitters typically do not rebound well after a couple of poor years in their mid-30s and he is now 37. He has been steadily declining in productivity since peaking in 1997 and 1998 (batting behind Mac). The fact that he is very popular (everyone loves Ray-Ray!), is having a good spring (.326/.375/.488) and is that valued 'veteran presence' that managers seem to love, might combine to obscure the Cards' perspective on who this player is now. But I am rooting like mad for him to step up, though it was not long ago that I would put a K down while some of his awful ABs were still in-progress.

I think the Cards will use their 2B or LF as the leadoff hitter (Lankford, Kerry Robinson, Tomy Womack (egad!), Marlon Anderson, Bo Hart, So Taguchi) but I cannot argue that it will be a smart thing to do. None of those folks are decent leadoff candidates.

It looks like Greg Vaughn is done. Completely. He was re-assigned to the minors and told Tony the Tiger he might just go home. No shocker. He hit .139 this spring with one extra-base. But give him some respect; he has over 1,000 career RBIs. But his numbers since 200 have been among the worst in MLB. Vaughn's situation might help to clear the path for Taguchi, which would be much fun. Gooch seems to have a knack for positive plays, whether it be an infield hit or a timely good defensive play, but I am surprised he is close to making 25-man the roster. He has only 69 career ABs (.840 OPS!) so I still maintain his success has been a fluke. I hope I am way off though because I like him.

The end-goals of sabermetrics, or how I learned stop worrying and love statistics

There is a great snippet over at the Honest Wagner blog (Pirates) discussing baseball statistics as related to classical test theory.

What Scoop is discussing here is right at the crux of sabermetric analysis, at as far as I'm concerned. The reason many people (me) get into sabermetrics is that they love baseball, they love their team (Royals) and they want to understand why the team they follow makes the decisions that they do. Scoop expresses something very fundamental here. One of the primary modus operandi of the modern big-league general manager is to be able to properly assess what his organization has, what they need, and who out there might be able provide that which is lacking at an appropriate rate of return.

In other words, on the right side of Scoop’s equation (Os = Ts + Es), the astute general manager will be able to use as much objective evidence as he can unearth to determine how much of a player’s stat line (Os) is due to actual ability (Ts) as opposed to unforeseen circumstance/randomness (Es).

Why haven’t the Phillies done everything in their power to jettison the .209-hitting Pat Burrell? Well besides Burrell’s contract which few teams could take on, it is because Burrell has created for himself a statistical profile, stemming from his performance to date, which strongly suggests that his 2003 performance was considerable below his true talent level. He had a bad year. At the same time, the g.m. has to examine the random part of the equation to make damned sure that there is no tangible reason (bad back, sudden blindness, heroin addiction) that would cause Burrell’s profile to be irreversibly altered. Burrell didn’t just regress, he plummeted. His decline was historical, especially for a guy at an age when he should still be ascending and who, as far as we can tell, had no physical malady which should have altered his performance.

If there is no tangible reason for the departure from the established rate of production, then it is reasonable to expect a player to bounce back to the prior level of performance. An example like Burrell sort of jabs you in the eye, of course. You could come to the same conclusion about him without looking at a stat register. But most of these kind of evaluations are much more subtle and this is where some g.m.’s demonstrate their real skill. And providing tools to make these assessments, to isolate the real from the random, is one of the functions of sabermetrics.

In the comments to that entry, Rowdy points out another function. He makes the point that true talent level is likely not static. From year-to-year, even day-to-day, a players’ actual skill level rises and falls, with age itself being the predominate factor. Again, this is where sabermetrics comes into play – it attempts to find the patterns in the shift of talent level so you will know what the player you signed today will be like tomorrow. It still is – and likely always will be – an inexact science. But an understanding of these patterns is yet more grist for the g.m.’s mill.

Dee Brown goes home to Omaha

You’re 26-years old, you’ve got 616 big-league at-bats over six seasons and you’ve been slated to start the season in Omaha. You know what you are? You’re a minor leaguer.

The problem with Dee Brown is that he was a first-round bonus baby and has always seen himself with a sort of magical aura. That’s not to say Dee is a bad guy. Quite the opposite – the feedback I hear from the local media is unanimous that Brown is one of the nicest, most polite and imminintly quotable players in any clubhouse. But he always says, when assessing his prospects, that lack of a regular spot in the lineup is the only thing holding him back from producing monster numbers. Meanwhile, he never wins that regular spot and doesn’t produce when the opportunity does come his way.

Brown seemed like he was sort of biding his time this spring. He knew that there was no chance, barring a slew of injuries, that he was going to make the opening day roster. He figured that somewhere near the spring, he’d wind up with another team, one who needed a starting left fielder. Brown was out of options so when the Royals made the final decision not to keep him, he had to be put through waivers. And he went unclaimed. So Dee Brown was removed from the Royals’ 40-man roster and assigned to Omaha where, apparently, he belongs. There have been more talented players than Dee Brown to wash out. I’d like to see him succeed but he’s at the age now where he can no longer be considered a prospect. He’s a minor leaguer.


WHAT IS YOUR OPINION ON MATT STAIRS. IS HE GOING TO BE THE ROYALS EVERY DAY DH?
No. Matt Stairs will be in a quasi-platoon with Ken Harvey, who will also spell Mike Sweeney at first base. He will not start against lefthanded pitching.

ANGEL BERROA: HIS NUMBERS FROM LAST YEAR ARE GREAT. IF HE HITS LEADOFF, WITH A HEALTHY BELTRAN, SWEENEY AND JUAN BEHIND HIM, WILL HE IMPROVE THOSE NUMBERS? HOW HAS HE LOOKED IN SPRING BALL?
I haven’t written much about Berroa this spring, I just realized. That’s not a bad thing. Angel simply hasn’t been a source of consternation. He’s good, he’s durable, he’s young and improving. What’s newsworthy in that? This spring, he’s posted a .310/.420/.500 line and has dedicated himself to do a better job of working the count and drawing walks. Words like those are chicken soup for the stat geek’s soul but, of course, a lot of players say that. The proof is in the puddin’. But I thing he will improve on his number from last year and will score a bunch of runs. That makes him a top-10 fantasy shortstop.

Another week, another pitcher out forever

The Royals announced yesterday that Miguel Asencio would indeed go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. An MRI that Asencio underwent Monday revealed a small tear in his elbow. This diagnosis came about three weeks after Miguel first reported discomfort. It'll be his second operation in less than a year. The first one was to remove bone chips. This means that the Royals now have three young pitchers on the shelf for the entirety of the 2004 season: Asencio, Kyle Snyder and Runelvys Hernandez. Hernandez, if you remember, went on the shelf after his dazzling start in 2003, then returned after a stint on the D.L. He wasn't the same pitcher and when the Royals threatened him with demotion, he decided to let everyone in on a little secret: his elbow was killing him. Sure enough, an MRI revealed a tear - a complete tear, mind you - and it was Tommy John time for Runelvys as well.

Here is what I don't understand. How big of a deal, really, is it to have an MRI exam? I had one on my heart a few months ago and it last about two hours or so. Is there a reason that an organization can't have it written into the contract of every pitcher that he undergo precautionary MRIs on both his elbow and shoulder at the conclusion of every season or at another time when it might be medically ideal to do so? Why is the MRI, which apparently provides the necessary data to make an exact diagnosis, seemingly always the last resort?
Here is what Allard Baird told Bob Dutton of The Star when asked if the young pitcher going down has become a pattern:

"I'm positive there is not a pattern," Allard Baird said. "It's part of the game. That's why you never have too much pitching."

Come on, Allard. Other than Jeremy Affeldt - who's innings have been artificially suppressed because of blister problems which, by the way, the Royals' medical staff couldn't fix on their own - what Royals pitcher under the mad scientist care of trainer Nick Shwarz and Dr. Stephen Joyce, a team which goes back about 15 years now, has not broken down. Yes, young pitchers are inordinately prone to injury. But young pitchers do arrive in the majors, succeed and stay relatively healthy. It happens. The Royals need to seriously re-examine that way their young pitchers are handled, the care that they receive and the methods they use to diagnose injuries. They need to ask themselves, "Are we doing everything we possibly can to ensure the health of our young talent?" Of course it's not just the pitchers. The position players have lost a lot of time because of injuries, too. The answer to the question is emphatically no - the Royals have a lot of improvement to make in this area.

Fantasy Mailbag

More questions about Royals players (and a couple of others, too) from my e-mail box. I've never had so many inquiries about Royals starting pitchers.

SHOULD I DROP JOSE VALVERDE? I NEED SAVES! ALSO, BRAD WILKERSON OR CRAIG WILSON?
Valverde is the best relief pitcher on the Diamondbacks. I don't know if or when he will close but middle relievers have value, too. I wouldn't worry so much about saves - or any other category - so early in the season. About a third of the teams will change closers this season. Some more than once. There will be opportunities to pickup saves, trust me. In the preseason, you just build the best team you can. Don't start picking up subpar players just to fill categories which haven't even started to accumulate yet. A note about Craig Willson: I know he should play full time. You know he should play full time. The Pirates don't know this, however. Two years in a row I have owned Wilson, at least for a spell. He ain't worth it. You never know when he is going to play. Wilkerson is a good player on a team that will have one of the best offenses in the National League.

HOW ABOUT THAT BRIAN ANDERSON? WHAT ABOUT AUBRY HUFF?
Again, I'm on the fence about Brian Anderson. He doesn't have the greatest track record. He had his best season last year (you could also make an argument for 2000) but he gave up 27 unearned runs. If you recalculate his ERA based on a normal unearned runs/earned runs rate, he'd have posted a 4.61 instead of a 3.77, or just a hair above his career average (4.58). But the Royals obviously feel that he is a Charlie Liebrandt sort of late-bloomer because they crowed when he re-signed with them. What's more, the Indians really wanted him back as well so teams are seeing something that isn't revealed in his stat lines. But I trust stat lines more and so I'm skeptical that Anderson is ready to become a front-of-the-line pitcher. I'd be pleased with 200 innings of league-average ERA. But, on the Royals, that could mean 12-15 victories. I try not to comment too much on non-Royals players. But I like Huff a lot. His command of the strike zone would indicate a hitter who is capable of maintaining the level of performance he exhibited last year. Actually, his numbers last year were only a slight improvement over the previous season, except for the number of plate appearances. And, in 2002, he was predominantly a DH so I don't see that move as a problem. Huff is entering his magical age-27 season so I think he could be headed for a .950 OPS kind of year.

King Carlos

In today’s Can of Corn by Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus, Perry raves about Carlos Beltran and the possibility of the 27-year old center fielder having a monster season. The eyewitness accounts coming out of Arizona are all echoes of the same chorus: “Beltran looks great.” That is about as subjective as it gets, but Beltran is slugging .857 this spring and is entering his age-27 season, which coincides with his first shot at big free-agent money after the season. Throw in the fact that he will have Mike Sweeney and Juan Gonzalez hitting behind him and it’s hard not to share Perry’s enthusiasm. Perry quoted something like a .320/.400/.560 line, which would be between the 75th and 90th percentile of his Pecota profile. He also mentioned the letters that all players love to have associated with their names: MVP. I’ve been commenting on Beltran’s chance to have an MVP year since last season, even before the Royals emerged as contenders. I’ve heard this mentioned about Beltran several times in the off-season and I wonder if there is any residual sway on the writers who vote on the award when a player is highly touted before a season begins, a la the Heisman Trophy. Either way, I intend to enjoy Beltran while I can.

Word has it that Rich Thompson may be on the bubble as far as making the team as the fifth outfielder. Apparently, he has misplayed a few balls in the outfield and the team is nervous. You don’t want a defensive specialist who can’t play defense. The scouting reports on Thompson, though, say that he can really pick it. He’s fast – 165 stolen bases in four minor league seasons – and fits the bill as a baserunning/defensive specialist. Unlike past years, the Royals have enough offense on the bench to carry a guy who can’t really hit. Thompson provides complimentary skills for minimum salary. No one else in the organization really matches his profile so I hope they keep him. As a Rule V guy, he’d have to be offered back to Pittsburgh for $25K and you’d have to think the Bucs would take him back. I don't know who the Royals would keep instead, though I'd love to think that it would be David DeJesus.

A couple of ex-Royals came across the radar today. Blake Stein was sent down by Pittsburgh, reminding me of the days of he and Dan Reichert, two pitchers with good stuff and not a clue what to do with it. Neither has developed into a decent big-league pitcher. Reichert, especially, should have been much more. Another former prospect, Ober Moreno has been lights out for the Mets this spring:

IP	H	SO	ERA
13	10	11	0.69

I’ve always felt bad for Ober. He posted some amazing numbers for Royals affiliates in 1998 and 1999 at the ages of 21 and 22, drawing comparisons to Mariano Rivera. He was brought up during the latter part of the 1999 season. Trying to hard to distinguish himself at the big-league level, he overthrew and blew out his arm, one of many young Royals pitchers to break down under the tender care of the Royals staff. He didn’t pitch at all in 2000 and was released by the R’s in October of 2002. After a fine comeback season for the Mets last year, he looks to be fully recovered. He turns 27 in April and still can enjoy a nice career. Even though it won’t be for the Royals – who never should have given up on him – I hope he does.

From the mailbag:
WHAT KIND OF SEASONS CAN A FANTASY PLAYER EXPECT FROM BRIAN ANDERSON AND JOE RANDA?

Anderson has been named the opening day starter. But don't take that to mean that he's an 'ace'. I'm a little worried about him. He doesn't have the greatest track record. Last season was his best by far but, even then, he allowed a ton of unearned runs, leading one to believe that his solid ERA masked a mediocre performance. But the Royals feel like he is one of those lefthanders who flounder for awhile and then - POOF! - the light comes on after they turn 30. The other team Anderson played for, Cleveland, wanted Anderson back badly. It's apparent that they see something there. Basically, I see Anderson as a 200-inning guy with a league-average ERA (4.52 or so) which translates to a 12-14 game winner. If that projection is accurate, then there will be plenty of time to pick up Anderson or a guy just like him. I'd take the wait and see approach.

Randa is a fast starter and worth having until around midseason. This year, batting behind the Beltran-Sweeney-Gonzalez triad, he should get plenty of RBI. But Joe is what he is. Look up his numbers from last year. You can expect pretty much the same in 2004.

I HEAR MACDOUGAL IS HEADED FOR THE D.L. SHOULD I BURN MY WAIVER SLOT AND GRAB CURT LESKANIC?
I wouldn't burn a waiver pick for Leskanic. First off, it's not even official that MacDougal will start the season in the DL. It's probable, but not official. And he won't be there long. The Royals merely want Mac to put back on a little weight and build up his strength. It's not like he's rehabbing a bum shoulder. A couple of saves won't be worth burning a #3 waiver slot.

I'VE GOT JIMMY GOBBLE, DARRELL MAY AND JEREMY AFFELDT. WHAT CAN I EXPECT?
I don't see Gobble as having a breakout year so much as I see him establishing himself as a legitimate big-league starting pitcher. It think he'll put up 170-180 innings, at a 4.50-5.00 ERA and win 10-13 games. In an AL keeper league, he's definitely worth the investment. Just don't let your expectations get out of whack. I think May will have another good year, though last year might have been his upside. His ERA should be better than league-average and he should win more games. Last season, he won just 10 games despite posting a 3.77 ERA over 210 innings. He was just plain unlucky. Affeldt is the real bargain. He is an ace-in-the-making, the one K.C. starter who I project as having a breakout year. I'm projecting 200 innings 15-17 wins, a 3.50-3.90 ERA, a 1.25 Whip and 170-180 K's. The guy his filthy and the blisters appear to be a thing of the past.

Things to do for this blog:

- links!
- archives!
- redesign, slightly, so that my brother in st. Louis can chirp in with Cardinal info
- That's about it for now

To no one’s surprise, the Royals sent Zack Greinke to the minor leagues yesterday. Actually, that is not quite accurate. They announced that he would be sent to the minor leagues, once spring training is over. Meanwhile, he’ll remain with the club to gain more experience working against big-league hitters. I think this is an excellent move. I know, I know. I’ve gotten to sound like Allard Baird’s rubber stamp.

By beginning the season in Omaha, Greinke will get the chance to work against the veteran hitters of Class AAA and he’ll do it in a hitter’s league in a hitter’s park – good training ground for Kauffman Stadium. The Royals clearly feel that Greinke is almost ready. There is no reason to rush him, though. Despite all of the plaudits during the spring, Greinke got hit around pretty good – 13 hits and 6 runs in 9-2/3 innings. If he struggles in Omaha, then he’ll be able to struggle under the radar. If he started the season in Kansas City and got bombed, that could be a problem. This way, he gets a chance to develop a little bit further but, as one of the youngest players in AAA, he also knows that he is but a short leap to the Show. If (or when) he conquers batters at Omaha, then no one will be able to question whether he has anything left to prove in the minor leagues. I think he’ll be in Kansas City by late May and will be a Rookie of the Year candidate. Look out Joe Mauer. As for Greinke, he didn’t seem too shaken by the news of his impending demotion. Of course, at this point in his dealings with the media, Greinke is about as effusive as a cactus. “It’s not like it’s the most amazing news ever,” he told The Kansas City Star.

In other Royal news, let me follow up on the Chris George rant from yesterday. Jimmy Gobble threw a in Class A spring game and was pounded for seven runs and 11 hits in 4-1/3 innings. “I didn’t really pitch inside that much,” Gobble told The Star, “Normally in that situation, you would definitely come inside a lot more. The main thing is that I felt good.” Hmmm. What situation is that? Is there a Class A rule that forbids you to pitch inside during a spring game? I don’t mean to overreact. Overall, Gobble has probably been the best pitcher in camp. But this came the day after George’s great outing which I wrote about yesterday. Also, the Royals announced that George would be starting Friday’s game against Milwaukee. Reading between the lines, you’d have to think that means they are still considering keeping George over Gobble. To restate my position on this, I don’t want to see Chris George on the Opening Day roster. I’d love to see him go back to Omaha and succeed in AAA in order to earn his way back to Kansas City. But we’ve been fooled by George’s spring performances before. As Admiral Ackbar would say over at Baseball Primer, “It’s a trap!”

Finally, Juan Gonzalez was back in the lineup yesterday. He ended up missing a full week with a ‘cramp’. Forgive me for being anxious, but this is the sort of thing that I was hoping wouldn’t surface during camp. I don’t really care what Gonzalez does during the spring, performance-wise. All I hoped for was that he would get through unscathed. Missing a week because of a cramp, well, I would now consider him scathed. As I say, I don’t care if he gets a hit the rest of spring training. I just want to see him in the lineup. I suppose we’ll be holding our breath for JuanGone all season long.

MacDougal Still Ailing

Word from Arizona is that the sickly Mike MacDougal may begin the season on the disabled list. MacDougal won't yet acknowledge this eventuality but that is the rumor. If he does, Curt Leskanic would probably close out games in his absence.

Meanwhile, Chris George threw four sterling innings in yesterday's start against the Angels:

I H R E W K
4 0 0 0 1 4

Well, la-di-da. We've long known that when George keeps the ball down in the zone and gets ahead of batters, he can be very effective. Of course, those two qualities will help almost any pitcher be effective. What should set George apart is his good stuff and his ability to change speeds at an above-average level. Location has been and will continue to be Chris George's bugaboo. And despite outpitching Bartolo Colon for four innings in sandy Arizona before the NCAA tournament has even reached the Sweet 16, ths will continue to be the case until proven otherwise.

My first reaction when I saw George's line was to exclaim, "I hope this doesn't fool them!"

After thinking about, that was a silly thing to say. The Royals have made nothing but sound decisions for the last year and 1/2. Allard Baird has often said that he won't let spring training performances become overblown from a player evaluation standpoint. So I don't think Chris George is any closer to making the team than he was before yesterday.

As for George, yesterday's game served as a reminder of the kind of performance he has teased us with in the past. George is still young and isn't that far removed from pitching in the Futures Game and being universally hailed as a top-flight pitching prospect - the next Tom Glavine. (Ironinc being that the Royals also have the next Greg Maddux.) It would be great if George repeated this performance another time or two this spring and then demonstrated superiority over Pacific Coast League batters, who abused him unmercifully last season.

My prediction for George is that he'll have a season or two where he is an above-average big-league pitcher, more along the lines of Charlie Liebrandt at his best than Tom Glavine. While Glavine also debuted in the big-leagues at 21 and posted a couple of shaky seasons, at age 23 Glavine transformed himself into the pitcher that we all came to know during the 1990's. There is a long tradition of late-blooming lefthanders, Jamie Moyer being the prototype, but George will only be 24 this season. If he is one of those late bloomers, then he'd be blooming in somebody's garden other than the Royals. So I'll be watching him close over the next couple of months to see, indeed, the light has finally clicked on. The overall track record suggests that it hasn't but, hey, it doesn't hurt to dream, right?