THE CASE FOR DEJESUS
The closer Opening Day gets, the more apparent it is becoming that the Royals should award the left-field job to David DeJesus. Let’s start with spring stats:
PLAYER.....AVG _SLG _OBA AB
Guiel......280 .560 .438 25
DeJesus....421 .684 .542 19
Well, it’s just the spring and these stats don’t tell us much other than both players have gotten off to good starts, but DeJesus has outperformed Guiel. You have to be excited by DeJesus’ extra-base potential and the walk rate is actually a little below what he’d actually do, while Guiel’s is well above his likely output. Guiel does have more power but not a lot. Over a full season, Guiel might hit 20 or more homers while DeJesus would be lucky to get 10-11 dingers. At this point in the spring, Cactus League pitchers just haven’t been able to get DeJesus out with any regularity.
Now, let’s look at some 2003 numbers, using Baseball Prospectus equivalents:
------------- Omaha ------------
Player....Age _AB _AVG _OBP _SLG
Guiel......30 190 .245 .361 .422
DeJesus....23 215 .263 .367 .419
DeJesus had only the proverbial cup of coffee in the big leagues so you can throw those numbers out. But the Omaha numbers are much more interesting. In identical enviroments and in near-identical playing time, DeJesus outhit Guiel. It wasn’t a slam dunk but the difference is clear. The most startling numbers on those lines, of course, are those in the first column – age. There is no doubt that Guiel is a late-bloomer and a good story as a career minor-leaguer made good. But not only does the still-developing DeJesus project much higher down the line, he is a better hitter right now. The aformentioned spring numbers only confirm what should already be apparent.
The difference in offensive productivity between Guiel and DeJesus in 2004 is probably going to be negligible. Here is how Nate Silver’s Pecota system sees the two, using midpoint projections, again expressed in equivalents with a couple other B.P. metrics tossed in:
Player....Age _AB AVG OBP SLG MLVR VORP DEF(POS)
Guiel......31 306 251 338 424 .025 04.3 +0 (RF)
DeJesus....24 260 267 354 425 .068 11.3 -3 (CF)
DeJesus wins again, though not by a lot. Though faster, DeJesus has never really been much of a base stealer and that can’t really used to make his case. Defensively, it’s difficult to compare the two since they are competing for a position – left field – that neither played in 2003. The scouting report on both players’ arms is above average for their positions. Thus, as a right fielder, Guiel would rate the advantage but since we’re talking about left field, arm strength is a low priority. The scouting reports also give DeJesus an above-average rating for range as a center-fielder while Guiel is only average in right. This is where I find the most compelling difference between the two players. The Royals are going to be throwing four left-handed flyball pitchers in their starting rotation to begin the 2004 season. Left field might be the most important defensive positon on the field for this year’s team. The advantage that the Royals would have by playing a capable centerfielder in left would be made that much more acute by the sheer the number of balls likely to be hit into that area. What’s more, with the statuesque Juan Gonzalez manning right field, playing DeJesus in left would allow Carlos Beltran to shade over a little bit and help out more on balls hit into the right-centerfield gap. The overall defense of the outfield would be strengthened.
Finally, making the DeJesus the every day left fielder would give the Royals something that their current projected batting order lacks: a true lead-off man. If there is one skill that DeJesus has excelled at all through his minor league career, it is getting on base. In over 800 minor-league plate appearances, DeJesus has posed an cumulative OBP right at .400 and this includes a .400 performance at pitcher-friendly Wilmington in 2002. While Angel Berroa posted a solid .338 OBP last season and, much to his credit, continues to work hard on his pitch selection and patience, the fact is that the .338 was heavily influenced by Berroa’s fourth-in-the-A.L. 18 HBP’s. I don’t know whether Berroa is a Craig Biggio-type who can annually push up his OBP by standing on top of the plate and taking pitches off the fleshy part of the arm but I really wouldn’t want him to be. There is too much injury risk. Besides, Berroa doesn’t have a closed-up, on-top-of-the-plate stance – he stands wide open. I foresee a broken wrist in his future if he continues to get by pitches at that rate. In any event, it is difficult to envision Berroa pushing his OBP much past .345 or .350, which would make him an ideal number eight or nine hitter in a deep lineup. Berroa’s real offensive advantage is the power potential he has as a shortstop, an advantage that he might suppress if saddled with the responsibilities – real or imagined – of a leadoff hitter. An 8-9-1 trio of a Desi Relaford-Tony Graffanino platoon/Berroa/DeJesus batting in front of Carlos Beltran, Mike Sweeney and Juan Gonzalez is pretty tasty. By plugging DeJesus in at the top of the order, the entire lineup falls into place.
The Royals really have nothing to lose by playing David DeJesus over Aaron Guiel, yet they seem intent to do so. Guiel would be an excellent fourth outfielder, providing pop off the bench and possessing the ability to fill in at all three outfield spots. But Matt Stairs provides the same value offensively and Rule V guy Rich Thompson would be a much better solution as a defensive fill-in, pinch runner and base-stealing specialist. DeJesus, Guiel, Stairs and Thompson all bat lefty so there is no platoon advantage for any of these players. The ideal roster construction would not have Guiel and Stairs on the same bench. Stairs isn’t going anywhere. So the Royals would have to make the tough decision by demoting the major-league capable and highly popular Guiel. DeJesus, a bust-your-butt, get-your-uniform-filthy kind of player, will also be popular but the average Kansas City fan doesn’t know that yet.
The easy thing to do is to send DeJesus down and say that they want to guarantee him a full season’s worth of at-bats since he will likely assume the position to be vacated by free-agent-to-be Carlos Beltran. But the more DeJesus plays and the more he gets on base, the harder the ‘easy’ thing to do becomes. A nice solution would be to shop Guiel and turn him into another useful relief pitcher - you can’t have too many of those. Send him to the Dodgers. Either way, let’s hope the Royals recognize what they have in DeJesus and what he can give them right now, not for his potential to patch a Beltran-depleted roster in 2005. I agree that DeJesus should get a full season of at-bats. I just thinks he should get them in Kansas City.
The closer Opening Day gets, the more apparent it is becoming that the Royals should award the left-field job to David DeJesus. Let’s start with spring stats:
PLAYER.....AVG _SLG _OBA AB
Guiel......280 .560 .438 25
DeJesus....421 .684 .542 19
Well, it’s just the spring and these stats don’t tell us much other than both players have gotten off to good starts, but DeJesus has outperformed Guiel. You have to be excited by DeJesus’ extra-base potential and the walk rate is actually a little below what he’d actually do, while Guiel’s is well above his likely output. Guiel does have more power but not a lot. Over a full season, Guiel might hit 20 or more homers while DeJesus would be lucky to get 10-11 dingers. At this point in the spring, Cactus League pitchers just haven’t been able to get DeJesus out with any regularity.
Now, let’s look at some 2003 numbers, using Baseball Prospectus equivalents:
------------- Omaha ------------
Player....Age _AB _AVG _OBP _SLG
Guiel......30 190 .245 .361 .422
DeJesus....23 215 .263 .367 .419
DeJesus had only the proverbial cup of coffee in the big leagues so you can throw those numbers out. But the Omaha numbers are much more interesting. In identical enviroments and in near-identical playing time, DeJesus outhit Guiel. It wasn’t a slam dunk but the difference is clear. The most startling numbers on those lines, of course, are those in the first column – age. There is no doubt that Guiel is a late-bloomer and a good story as a career minor-leaguer made good. But not only does the still-developing DeJesus project much higher down the line, he is a better hitter right now. The aformentioned spring numbers only confirm what should already be apparent.
The difference in offensive productivity between Guiel and DeJesus in 2004 is probably going to be negligible. Here is how Nate Silver’s Pecota system sees the two, using midpoint projections, again expressed in equivalents with a couple other B.P. metrics tossed in:
Player....Age _AB AVG OBP SLG MLVR VORP DEF(POS)
Guiel......31 306 251 338 424 .025 04.3 +0 (RF)
DeJesus....24 260 267 354 425 .068 11.3 -3 (CF)
DeJesus wins again, though not by a lot. Though faster, DeJesus has never really been much of a base stealer and that can’t really used to make his case. Defensively, it’s difficult to compare the two since they are competing for a position – left field – that neither played in 2003. The scouting report on both players’ arms is above average for their positions. Thus, as a right fielder, Guiel would rate the advantage but since we’re talking about left field, arm strength is a low priority. The scouting reports also give DeJesus an above-average rating for range as a center-fielder while Guiel is only average in right. This is where I find the most compelling difference between the two players. The Royals are going to be throwing four left-handed flyball pitchers in their starting rotation to begin the 2004 season. Left field might be the most important defensive positon on the field for this year’s team. The advantage that the Royals would have by playing a capable centerfielder in left would be made that much more acute by the sheer the number of balls likely to be hit into that area. What’s more, with the statuesque Juan Gonzalez manning right field, playing DeJesus in left would allow Carlos Beltran to shade over a little bit and help out more on balls hit into the right-centerfield gap. The overall defense of the outfield would be strengthened.
Finally, making the DeJesus the every day left fielder would give the Royals something that their current projected batting order lacks: a true lead-off man. If there is one skill that DeJesus has excelled at all through his minor league career, it is getting on base. In over 800 minor-league plate appearances, DeJesus has posed an cumulative OBP right at .400 and this includes a .400 performance at pitcher-friendly Wilmington in 2002. While Angel Berroa posted a solid .338 OBP last season and, much to his credit, continues to work hard on his pitch selection and patience, the fact is that the .338 was heavily influenced by Berroa’s fourth-in-the-A.L. 18 HBP’s. I don’t know whether Berroa is a Craig Biggio-type who can annually push up his OBP by standing on top of the plate and taking pitches off the fleshy part of the arm but I really wouldn’t want him to be. There is too much injury risk. Besides, Berroa doesn’t have a closed-up, on-top-of-the-plate stance – he stands wide open. I foresee a broken wrist in his future if he continues to get by pitches at that rate. In any event, it is difficult to envision Berroa pushing his OBP much past .345 or .350, which would make him an ideal number eight or nine hitter in a deep lineup. Berroa’s real offensive advantage is the power potential he has as a shortstop, an advantage that he might suppress if saddled with the responsibilities – real or imagined – of a leadoff hitter. An 8-9-1 trio of a Desi Relaford-Tony Graffanino platoon/Berroa/DeJesus batting in front of Carlos Beltran, Mike Sweeney and Juan Gonzalez is pretty tasty. By plugging DeJesus in at the top of the order, the entire lineup falls into place.
The Royals really have nothing to lose by playing David DeJesus over Aaron Guiel, yet they seem intent to do so. Guiel would be an excellent fourth outfielder, providing pop off the bench and possessing the ability to fill in at all three outfield spots. But Matt Stairs provides the same value offensively and Rule V guy Rich Thompson would be a much better solution as a defensive fill-in, pinch runner and base-stealing specialist. DeJesus, Guiel, Stairs and Thompson all bat lefty so there is no platoon advantage for any of these players. The ideal roster construction would not have Guiel and Stairs on the same bench. Stairs isn’t going anywhere. So the Royals would have to make the tough decision by demoting the major-league capable and highly popular Guiel. DeJesus, a bust-your-butt, get-your-uniform-filthy kind of player, will also be popular but the average Kansas City fan doesn’t know that yet.
The easy thing to do is to send DeJesus down and say that they want to guarantee him a full season’s worth of at-bats since he will likely assume the position to be vacated by free-agent-to-be Carlos Beltran. But the more DeJesus plays and the more he gets on base, the harder the ‘easy’ thing to do becomes. A nice solution would be to shop Guiel and turn him into another useful relief pitcher - you can’t have too many of those. Send him to the Dodgers. Either way, let’s hope the Royals recognize what they have in DeJesus and what he can give them right now, not for his potential to patch a Beltran-depleted roster in 2005. I agree that DeJesus should get a full season of at-bats. I just thinks he should get them in Kansas City.