IS MACDOUGAL STILL THE CLOSER?
I used to sigh at the closer questions related to fantasy baseball analysis. Saves - that contrived stat that has so distorted relief pitcher usage in real baseball - are so precious and so finite in the roto-realm. So no matter how many times I write about the Royals closer, the questions still come. But I've accepted that and just because I don't feel like you have to go all gung-ho over saves to win a fantasy league doesn't mean that other viewpoints ought to be discounted. So here we go again:
Mike MacDougal is definitely the closer and he's not a bad one. There are probably two reasons why he is still available: Kansas City players are often overlooked and preseason projections on him have been unnecessarily pessimistic. He should save 30-40 games. Grab him.
WILL JUAN GONE HAVE A DECENT YEAR?
Juan Gonzalez will give you a .290-.300 average, a .320-.330 on-base percentage and a .515-.540 slugging percentage. He will have high rates of home runs and, especially, RBI per games played. The only question is how many games he will play. This query is not one that can be answered objectively. He doesn't have the one chronic sort of ailment such as degenerateive knee problems or a bad back that raise the red flag in regards to his health. What he does have, however, is a horrible track record of staying healthy. He is always a risky selection based on that. All that being said, I think there is a convergence of forces that portend JuanGone putting in a full season's work. For the first time, he had to take a dramatic pay cut, going from $13-$14 million dollar player to a $4.5 million plus incentives player. At his age and given his short-term deal with the Royals, he has really only one last shot at landing a big, multi-year contract. He is also playing on an upbeat team on which he isn not expected to be the focus. He is playing for a guy (Tony Pena) who can motivate anyone. And he is playing alongside one of his best friends in Carlos Beltran. His focus in the preseason has been on his playing time. He has been seen around the Royals camp wearing a t-shirt that says '162'. That is way too optimistic but I do thing that there is a good chance that Juan break his pattern of ill-health in 2004. If he does, he'll drive in 120 - at least. So the reason his projections vary so much is that it is so difficult to predict his games played. With my optimism on that subject already duly noted, here are my projections for Juan Gone: 508 AB, 32 HR, 120 RBI, 90 R, .290 AVG.
WILL KEN HARVEY PLAY ENOUGH TO BE FANTASY-WORTHY?
The Royals approach is that Harvey is a player on the upswing and will get the playing time of a near-full time player this season. Stairs was brought in as a uber-utility guy, who will spell Gonzalez, Sweeney, Harvey and Guiel in a rotation among the 1B-DH-LF-RF spots. My take on Harvey is more pessimistic. If he doesn't become much more selective at the plate this season, then he'll lapse to the lesser half of a semi-platoon in which he'll only play against lefties, whom he hit very well last season. As the book against Harvey began to circulate around the league last season - which was hard stuff down and out or up and in - Harvey did not adjust. It was if he strolled to the plate with an 0-2 count against him. And despite being down in the count, he still over swung, trying to pull unpullable pitches even though his m.o. in the minors was plugging the right-center field gap with line drives. 1B being an offensive position, I don't see him as being fantasy viable this year. If you already have him, I'd wait to drop him. Give him a couple of weeks to see if he is hitting with more discipline. If so, he can be a +.300 hitter with 10-15 homers and good RBI totals. If not, then it means he hasn't learned a thing and will lose most of his playing time to Matt Stairs.
I used to sigh at the closer questions related to fantasy baseball analysis. Saves - that contrived stat that has so distorted relief pitcher usage in real baseball - are so precious and so finite in the roto-realm. So no matter how many times I write about the Royals closer, the questions still come. But I've accepted that and just because I don't feel like you have to go all gung-ho over saves to win a fantasy league doesn't mean that other viewpoints ought to be discounted. So here we go again:
Mike MacDougal is definitely the closer and he's not a bad one. There are probably two reasons why he is still available: Kansas City players are often overlooked and preseason projections on him have been unnecessarily pessimistic. He should save 30-40 games. Grab him.
WILL JUAN GONE HAVE A DECENT YEAR?
Juan Gonzalez will give you a .290-.300 average, a .320-.330 on-base percentage and a .515-.540 slugging percentage. He will have high rates of home runs and, especially, RBI per games played. The only question is how many games he will play. This query is not one that can be answered objectively. He doesn't have the one chronic sort of ailment such as degenerateive knee problems or a bad back that raise the red flag in regards to his health. What he does have, however, is a horrible track record of staying healthy. He is always a risky selection based on that. All that being said, I think there is a convergence of forces that portend JuanGone putting in a full season's work. For the first time, he had to take a dramatic pay cut, going from $13-$14 million dollar player to a $4.5 million plus incentives player. At his age and given his short-term deal with the Royals, he has really only one last shot at landing a big, multi-year contract. He is also playing on an upbeat team on which he isn not expected to be the focus. He is playing for a guy (Tony Pena) who can motivate anyone. And he is playing alongside one of his best friends in Carlos Beltran. His focus in the preseason has been on his playing time. He has been seen around the Royals camp wearing a t-shirt that says '162'. That is way too optimistic but I do thing that there is a good chance that Juan break his pattern of ill-health in 2004. If he does, he'll drive in 120 - at least. So the reason his projections vary so much is that it is so difficult to predict his games played. With my optimism on that subject already duly noted, here are my projections for Juan Gone: 508 AB, 32 HR, 120 RBI, 90 R, .290 AVG.
WILL KEN HARVEY PLAY ENOUGH TO BE FANTASY-WORTHY?
The Royals approach is that Harvey is a player on the upswing and will get the playing time of a near-full time player this season. Stairs was brought in as a uber-utility guy, who will spell Gonzalez, Sweeney, Harvey and Guiel in a rotation among the 1B-DH-LF-RF spots. My take on Harvey is more pessimistic. If he doesn't become much more selective at the plate this season, then he'll lapse to the lesser half of a semi-platoon in which he'll only play against lefties, whom he hit very well last season. As the book against Harvey began to circulate around the league last season - which was hard stuff down and out or up and in - Harvey did not adjust. It was if he strolled to the plate with an 0-2 count against him. And despite being down in the count, he still over swung, trying to pull unpullable pitches even though his m.o. in the minors was plugging the right-center field gap with line drives. 1B being an offensive position, I don't see him as being fantasy viable this year. If you already have him, I'd wait to drop him. Give him a couple of weeks to see if he is hitting with more discipline. If so, he can be a +.300 hitter with 10-15 homers and good RBI totals. If not, then it means he hasn't learned a thing and will lose most of his playing time to Matt Stairs.